The Pittsburgh Steelers probably have no business being 4-2 at this point in the season. Yet in classic Mike Tomlin fashion, the Steelers are tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North and are entering Week 7 with the league’s sixth-best scoring margin, at plus-38.
Fans of this team probably didn’t have real expectations for the Steelers to contend for a Super Bowl this season, so the current results might seem just fine. Pittsburgh has been competitive and, sometimes, even fun to watch. “We’ve been pretty good at times,” Tomlin acknowledged in his Tuesday press conference, “but not to be confused with great.”
Keep that statement front of mind, as Tomlin is apparently ready to switch quarterbacks—from Justin Fields, who has started the first six games, to Russell Wilson, who has been sidelined since the start of the season with a calf injury. Tomlin is being vague about his plans, but reports from Pittsburgh this week indicate that Wilson is taking first-team reps at practice, so signs point to Wilson making his first start of the season on Sunday night against the Jets.
In one respect, it’s easy to accept this impending quarterback switch as a reflection of Tomlin’s consistent messaging. Wilson was signed this offseason to be the starter, and he was QB1 before the calf injury popped up in training camp. There’s some sense in giving a player, especially a veteran like Wilson, an opportunity to prove to the team he should still be the starter when healthy.
But Fields has played well in this six-game stretch and has made clear strides in both his play and decision-making. Put on his tape, and it’s evident there’s a credible argument that he, not Wilson, gives Pittsburgh its best chance to win this season. The Steelers are currently ranked 10th by passing expected points added—it’s hard to imagine that Wilson, at least the version of Wilson we saw the past two years in Denver, would have produced similar or better results early in the season. Quarterback play hasn’t been a leading factor in any of this team’s wins, and that shouldn’t be taken as an insult to Fields’s contributions. In many ways, this has been a classic Tomlin Steelers season—getting just enough from the offense while being carried by the defense.
Let’s go to the tape to evaluate what Fields has done to this point, compare that to how Wilson projects in offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense, and lay out whether this change will bring the Steelers any closer to being the great team Tomlin aspires to have.
Throw Type: First Reads and Passes to the Perimeter
When Fields was coming into the league as a first-round prospect from Ohio State, one of his best traits was his confidence and accuracy on throws to his first read, especially on passes outside of the numbers. But during his time in Chicago, his accuracy on outside throws was surprisingly poor, and his tendency to attempt those perimeter throws was used as a cudgel against him. That he wouldn’t throw balls in the middle of the field or on seam routes was seen as proof that he couldn’t see the field well; his inability to routinely hit those perimeter throws that were supposed to be his strength raised questions about his viability as a starter in the NFL.
Pittsburgh seems to have restored his confidence on those perimeter throws, and this season, Fields is completing 74.1 percent of his throws between the numbers and sideline—nearly 9 percentage points better than his previous career high and currently the 13th-best rate among all quarterbacks.
That confidence is clear in the clip below. Fields knows he has one-on-one coverage on the boundary, and he delivers the ball with great timing. The degree of difficulty on this throw is not the highest, but what he’s showing here—and has routinely shown through these last six weeks—is that he can play within structure when he gets easy opportunities like this. These kinds of comeback throws move the chains on early downs and have helped him rack up 679 passing yards on throws outside the numbers. That’s the seventh most among quarterbacks this season.
This is an area where Wilson tends to excel as well. While he didn’t have the highest volume of throws on the perimeter last year with the Broncos (ranking 18th, with 175 such attempts), he ranked fourth in completion rate, at 74.9 percent. Looking at the past five seasons, Wilson has completed less than 70 percent of perimeter throws only once, his final season in Seattle (when he dealt with a finger injury and the questions about his physical decline began). There are a lot of reasons to have concerns about what Wilson has left in the tank, but I’m still willing to believe that Wilson can complete passes up the sideline when those throws are his first read of the progression and the play breaks open.
I’m willing to grant a slight edge to Fields over Wilson on these types of throws while acknowledging that the differences between the two are marginal. Fields has the type of arm strength that Wilson has slowly been losing in recent years. That decreased zip and accuracy on perimeter throws shows up on Wilson’s 2023 tape, as he completed just 13 of his 34 deep pass attempts (20-plus air yards) on the perimeter last season. Fields already has six such completions this year, and you can see in the clip below how much his arm strength plays a part in fitting the ball into tight windows.
While Fields gives the offense more when it comes to this part of the passing game, I don’t think Pittsburgh’s offense is impossible to execute without those 50/50 sideline balls. The Steelers don’t have a true superstar receiver they can rely on down to down to win in those situations, so it’s reasonable to expect Wilson to manage just fine without regularly firing jump balls on the boundary.
Advantage: Fields
Throw Type: Tight Windows
When the first look isn’t available for quarterbacks, the ability to work the middle of the field is what separates the elite passers from the scheme merchants. This is not a strength for either of these quarterbacks.
Still, Fields has come a long way in his ability to find throws in closing windows, especially between the numbers. His game against the Chargers last month was arguably the best he’s looked as a passer in his NFL career, and this touchdown throw to Calvin Austin in the clip below is one of the better passes he’s made. Not only does Fields recognize the coverage and determine where to go with the ball but he gets the throw off early enough to keep his receiver out of harm’s way—and that means opportunities for yards after the catch:
Despite his progress in this area, Fields still isn’t the kind of quarterback who pressures defenses across every blade of grass, and that’s why his opponents can still frustrate him with man coverage at times. The clip below is an example of a miss for Fields and an area where he still needs to improve. The Raiders last week played man pressure against a passing concept that should have given Fields multiple ways to beat Cover 1. He could throw the fade route on the outside or an over route to the receiver crossing the seams. To hit that one-on-one play to the receiver outside the numbers, it’s expected that a quarterback will throw the fade route in a way that allows his receiver to get open. We have already talked about Fields’s confidence on those perimeter passes, but in this case, he needed to accept that the fade route was well covered and move on to the receiver running the over route, where there was plenty of space to throw the receiver away from the defender.
Frankly, if Fields were able to hit these throws more often, we may not even be having this conversation about a quarterback change.
Wilson has a slight advantage over Fields in this regard—but I’d argue that’s better explained by his trust in the scheme to get guys open in the middle of the field than his ability to create space for his receivers where it’s otherwise scarce. In the clip below, the play design by Sean Payton does the heavy lifting in getting the receiver open on the crossing route. But this is exactly the kind of throw Fields didn’t choose to take in the clip from last week. Even though the receiver was well covered, Wilson still had more than enough space to throw him open and was able to do so.
Still, one of the most frustrating aspects of Wilson’s game in recent years is his inability to play well when his offense doesn’t have any clear talent or schematic advantages over its opponent. In the clip below from last season, the Broncos run receivers on two in-breaking routes against a quarter-quarter-half (Cover 6) zone shell. It’s the kind of passing concept an offense wants against this coverage. Wilson can have either of his options here (with yards-after-the-catch chances if he can manipulate underneath defenders with his eyes), but he forfeits a big-play opportunity by checking it down.
I think there is an argument to be made that Wilson gives the Steelers offense more access to the entire field than Fields because of his experience, but I’m doubtful that truly changes outcomes for Pittsburgh because it still requires Smith to do most of the heavy lifting to scheme receivers open in the middle of the field. We don’t have evidence yet that Smith can pull that off with the current offensive personnel. Fields is currently 29th in success rate on throws inside the numbers, and Wilson was 28th last year. Working the middle of the field will be a weakness for this passing game no matter who’s under center.
Advantage: Wilson
X Factors
The area where Fields truly separates himself from Wilson is in his ability to scramble. His running was by far the best part of his game during his time in Chicago. Just last week, Fields rushed for 59 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Raiders, but the rest of the season has been a disappointment on the ground, as Fields is averaging just 4.2 yards per carry this year, the lowest mark of his career.
Fields didn’t get slower or forget how to be an elusive runner since leaving Chicago, but Smith hasn’t made the necessary adjustments to the offensive scheme to incorporate the option game. More often than not, Fields’s carries have come on designed runs that are simply repurposed traditional run game concepts, as though Fields were running a wildcat package. In the clip below, Fields is running outside zone, with no misdirection or option reads to put stress on the defense. Even though the play is effective, it’s indicative of how little creativity exists in Pittsburgh’s offense. I believe that’s the reason Fields doesn’t have a rush of over 20 yards this season, not because he’s unable to pull that kind of explosive play off. The running game as a whole has been disappointing, and as a team, the Steelers are just 24th in yards per rush (4.0) and 17th in the percentage of runs gaining 10 or more yards (10.8 percent). When defenses are loading the box and the offense isn’t creative in opening angles, you get a stale run game.
As for Wilson, he differentiates himself from Fields by taking his chances and throwing deep downfield. He ranked third last year in passes traveling 30-plus yards downfield, with 35 attempts—and his 12 completions on those attempts were just one away from tying Jordan Love and Derek Carr at the top of the league. At his career peak, no quarterback threw a prettier deep ball than Wilson, and he can still dig into that bag on occasion, like in the clip below. When Wilson gets a chance to push the ball for huge chunk plays, he’ll take it.
While Fields has taken more chances this year than he did in Chicago, he probably won’t ever be as aggressive of a downfield passer as Wilson.
When we’re considering X factors for the offense, I think Wilson’s willingness to push the ball deep is an advantage over Fields’s legs but not simply for the reductive reasoning of passing being more valuable than rushing. This Steelers offense was not built with a true running threat in mind, and attempts to get Fields involved are often more clunky than efficient. If this team were more invested in building something serious around Fields’s mobility, I think the margins here would be closer, but giving yourself more chances at huge chunk plays is the right trade-off to make here.
Advantage: Wilson
The Bottom Line
Even though Wilson has the theoretical edge over Fields in this brief scouting exercise, I still don’t understand the real reason behind making this move right now. First, Wilson has missed time in each of the past three seasons because of injuries or performance, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Fields has to return to the lineup at some point. Tomlin is betting that Fields won’t lose the rhythm he’s developed this season and won’t lose whatever confidence he’s gained during his time as a starter. That feels like a big risk.
This move is a heat check on Tomlin’s leadership; he’s counting on professionalism from these players in a way I have a hard time wrapping my head around.
Second, this is a crucial time in the calendar for the Steelers. Pittsburgh faces the New York Jets on Sunday in its first game with Davante Adams and has games against a hot Washington Commanders team and each of its AFC North rivals in the next six weeks. If the Ravens are truly getting hot and about to speed by the rest of the division, then having as many head-to-head tiebreakers and conference wins is of the utmost importance. If Wilson is rusty at all and coaches don’t yank him from the lineup quickly if he struggles, there’s nothing keeping Pittsburgh from tumbling out of the AFC playoff picture.
Finally, and most importantly, I just don’t see two fundamentally different quarterbacks competing here in a way that makes one a clear fit for Smith’s offense and warrants a change for a winning team. I see two similar passers on different ends of the age curve, and their styles of play reflect their physical states. We also have to acknowledge that both guys can be a mess when it comes to handling pressure and turning the ball over at inopportune times. Last season, Wilson (minus-114.98) and Fields (minus-106.04) both lost significant EPA because of turnovers and sacks, and I expect that to continue for both in Pittsburgh—even though Fields has been significantly better in these regards this year than he ever was for the Bears.
So that brings us to the question of what Tomlin is hoping to accomplish here, and what short- and long-term goals he’s weighing. Of the two players, Fields is the quarterback on a developmental arc, and to me, it would make sense to lean into the future with full force with a young quarterback the team seems to rally behind. What little they stand to gain in making this switch can’t measure up with what this team stands to lose if the season goes sideways, even if Wilson was given a promise he’d be the starter when he arrived in Pittsburgh in the spring.
I consider Tomlin one of the league’s best coaches, particularly when it comes to managing personalities and the locker room dynamic, and he should know better than anyone that things can change quickly in the NFL. It might not be an easy decision, but I think the smart decision would be to ride this out with Fields as long as it’s working. Tomlin appears ready to do the opposite, and I fear that his approach might actually impede the Steelers on the coach’s quest to achieve greatness.
