After the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season, there were undoubtedly some major overreactions. One of the most notable involved BYU, ranked No. 9 by the CFP committee. This currently places the Cougars as the last of the four automatic bids to receive a first-round bye, given they lead the Big 12.
There are certainly worse spots to be in, yet an undefeated BYU team barely reaching the Top 10 raises questions. Sure, there’s still plenty of football left to play, but these initial rankings provide insight into how the committee views teams, and it’s clear they remain somewhat skeptical of the Cougars.
Frankly, BYU appears to be about four spots too low in these initial CFP rankings.
BYU’s wins compare favorably to those ahead of them
Only three undefeated teams are ranked ahead of BYU in the CFP standings: Indiana at No. 8, Miami at No. 4, and Oregon at No. 1. Oregon’s top ranking is justified, as the Ducks hold one of the best wins in the country, defeating now-No. 2 Ohio State. However, there’s a strong argument that BYU is more deserving than both Indiana and Miami.
Both Indiana and Miami, while impressive and leading the country in scoring offense, have notably weak schedules. The Hoosiers have yet to play a ranked team, and Miami’s only ranked win came over No. 22 Louisville, a team that wasn’t ranked at the time.
In comparison, BYU boasts two strong wins over No. 13 SMU and No. 19 Kansas State. When measured against the undefeated teams ahead of them and some one-loss teams, BYU presents a more compelling résumé, with the possible exception of Georgia, which defeated then-No. 1 Texas on the road. The No. 5 Longhorns themselves greatest victory to date is over a then-No. 25 Vanderbilt.
BYU has little room for error
While BYU’s remaining schedule appears manageable, nothing is guaranteed, especially with the way the Big 12 has played out this season. The Cougars visit Utah this weekend, then return home to face Kansas, travel to a resurgent Arizona State, and close the regular season at home against Houston. Of those, only Arizona State holds a winning record.
Even with one loss, the Cougars could still make the Big 12 title game, but that loss may jeopardize their first-round bye. If Boise State—currently three spots behind BYU in the CFP rankings—wins out while BYU has one loss as Big 12 champion, the committee might favor the Broncos for that fourth and final first-round bye. Sure, BYU still gets into the playoff but under much tougher circumstances, likely in the 12th spot going on the road.
Realistically, the Big 12’s best chance at a first-round bye rests with BYU, which will likely need to win out to secure it.
BYU’s brand recognition and preseason projections didn’t help in CFP ranking
It’s often said that preseason rankings don’t influence the CFP standings, but brand recognition and historical performance undeniably play a role.
BYU has only appeared in the CFP Top 25 twice, ranking No. 16 in 2020 and No. 13 in 2021. They finished unranked the past two seasons and haven’t had a Top 10 finish since 1996, when they placed No. 5 in the AP Poll. Their last conference title came in 2007 in the WAC, and they haven’t won a national championship since 1984, their only one in program history.
Additionally, as a former independent team joining the Big 12 only last year, the Cougars weren’t predicted to be title contenders; they were projected to finish 13th in the conference at Big 12 media days over the summer.
Considering these factors, it becomes more understandable why the committee ranked BYU at No. 9. Without the brand recognition and recent success of top-tier programs, committee voters likely hesitated to consider them a Top 5 team, though they shouldn’t have.
