With only three days until Election Day, the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains extraordinarily tight and widely considered a toss-up. However, as of Saturday, more forecasts give Trump a slight edge to take the White House.
The race essentially comes down to the seven battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Together, these states hold 93 Electoral College votes, with Pennsylvania holding the most at 19. They could tip the election to either candidate in the race to secure the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.
Overall, several forecasts have shifted to indicate an even tighter race. Here’s what several forecasts, which like aggregate polls, are updated frequently with new information, show as of Saturday afternoon.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaign for comment via email on Saturday.
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538 Forecast: Trump
538’s Saturday forecast model, based on 1,000 simulations, shows a much tighter margin between Harris and Trump than earlier this week.
The latest stimulation predicts Trump will win the election 50 out of 100 times, with Harris winning 49 times.
The model continues to tighten the race. Last Saturday, it showed a 10-point difference between the candidates, with Trump 55 percent likely to win the election and Harris at 45 percent.
In terms of Electoral College votes, the current model projects that Trump will secure 270 and Harris will be just shy at 268. The model shows North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona leaning Republican, while Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada remain as “toss up.”
Economist Forecast: Harris
On Saturday, Harris’ forecast in The Economist improved by 4 percentage points due to new polling in Pennsylvania, which increased her chances of winning the Keystone State and flipped the forecast in her favor over Trump.
In its daily update, The Economist wrote, “Of the eight pollsters who published polls of Pennsylvania, the average result was a one-point lead for her, compared with a one-point lead for Donald Trump in yesterday’s forecast.”
On Friday, Marist released a poll of 1,558 registered voters in Pennsylvania that found Harris up 2 percentage points in the state. The poll was conducted between October 27 and 30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Yesterday, Trump was projected to win in the model with a 51 percent chance compared to Harris’ 48 percent. The day before, the two candidates were deadlocked at 50 percent.
Until Saturday, Harris hadn’t led in the model since October 19, but now it puts her at a 52 percent chance of winning the election compared to Trump’s 48 percent. The model projects Harris will win 270 Electoral College votes and Trump will secure 268.
Silver Bulletin Forecast: Trump
Statistician Nate Silver’s latest Silver Bulletin forecast, last updated Friday afternoon, shows Harris ahead by 1 percentage point in the popular vote but trailing Trump by 8 percentage points in the overall forecast.
National aggregate polls gauge voter sentiment, but individual states and their Electoral College votes ultimately decide the presidential election, which doesn’t always align with the national popular vote.
Silver puts Trump’s win probability at 51.1 percent and Harris’ at 48.5 percent. However, the model shows that Harris is projected to secure 270.9 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 267.1.
On Thursday, the forecast predicted a wider gap between the two, with Harris holding a 46.2 percent chance of winning and Trump at 53.4 percent.
RealClearPolling Forecast: Trump
RealClearPolling’s “no toss up states” prediction shows Trump securing the White House.
As of Saturday, it finds Harris 19 votes shy of 270, at 251—which notably is the amount of Electoral College votes Pennsylvania carries.
The model forecasts Trump as securing Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, while Harris takes Michigan and Wisconsin. It puts Trump at 287 Electoral College votes.
