The run-up to the 2024 election saw numerous predictions and forecasts, and inevitably, not everyone was correct about who the next president would be.
Prominent forecast models had drastic fluctuations during the election cycle because of unexpected events, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out of the race and President Joe Biden being replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris.
President-elect Donald Trump claimed victory after winning the swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and he could pick up more, as Michigan, Nevada and Arizona have not finished counting their votes.
Below, we analyze several of the forecasts made in the lead-up to Tuesday’s election. Newsweek has contacted the pollsters listed for comment.
Nate Silver
As one of the most recognizable names in polling, Nate Silver’s prediction carried a significant amount of weight throughout the election. His model, the Silver Bulletin, predicted on Tuesday that Harris had a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Trump’s 49.6 percent.
In the final days of the election, Silver said that the race was a “pure toss-up” and that “50-50 is the only responsible forecast.” However, a couple of days before Election Day, he also said his gut told him that Trump would win.
Silver also said there would be a high chance of a “clean sweep” on election night, with one of the candidates winning every swing state.
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Allan Lichtman
“Polling Nostradamus” Allan Lichtman is the creator of the “Thirteen Keys to the White House,” a series of historical fundamentals that can be either true or false, and which dictate whether the incumbent party retains control of the presidency.
Unlike other forecast models, Lichtman’s keys provide an absolute answer rather than a percentage. In September, Lichtman said his model predicted that Harris would win the election.
Lichtman said the keys in the Democrat’s favor included the lack of a strong third-party candidate and that the economy was performing well.
Ann Selzer
Another big name in the polling industry, Ann Selzer released a shock poll the weekend before Election Day that showed Harris up by 3 points in Iowa, despite previous polling showing Trump with a healthy lead there and the state backing the Republican in the previous two elections.
The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom, found that 47 percent of Iowa voters supported Harris and 44 percent supported Trump.
Despite its historical reputation of being accurate, Selzer’s poll did not reflect the final result in Iowa. Trump took the state with a comfortable 14-point lead, increasing his margin there from 2020, when he won the state by 9 points.
FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver’s former election forecast model, 538, is the most well-known polling aggregation site in U.S. politics, and it correctly predicted Biden’s win in 2020.
On the eve of the 2024 election, the model, owned by ABC News, gave Harris a 50 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump had a 49 percent chance of winning.
Toward the end of last month, Trump reached his highest chances in the model, peaking at a 55 percent chance of victory on October 26.
The Economist
The Economist‘s election forecast, which uses similar techniques to 538, also showed a close race on the final day of the election cycle, giving Harris a 56 percent chance of winning, while Trump had a 43 percent chance. There was a 1 percent chance of a draw.
Which Pollsters Were Most Accurate?
Polls from Atlas Intel on the final week of the campaign showed Trump winning Pennsylvania by 1 point—which, at the time of writing, is in line with what the former president is set to win by, according to the Associated Press.
Atlas also correctly estimated Trump’s margins in Ohio and North Carolina.
According to Politico, the polling firm J.L. Partners was also accurate with its numbers. On November 5, its model gave former President Donald Trump a 54 percent chance of victory. Polling published at the end of October in conjunction with the Daily Mail showed Trump having a 3-point lead over Harris.
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