Chances of a White Christmas may be slim this year, as much of the U.S. is forecast to be warmer than usual on Christmas Day.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, nearly the entire area of the country is due to see temperatures above average between December 25 and 29, with the Midwest being most likely to see unusually warm weather.
In a 6-10 day temperature outlook map, there is a probability between 30 and 60 percent of temperatures being above usual in California and the southwest, and also across the East Coast.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
This likelihood rises to 60–70 percent further in from the East and West coasts, increasing to 70–80 percent in the Great Plains and the Appalachian states.
There is an 80–90 percent chance of above-average temperatures across the Central U.S., with a 90–100 percent probability in the Midwest and Great Lakes states.
Only parts of northern Alaska are forecast to see below-average temperatures for this period.
Temperatures in the Midwest and Great Lakes region in December usually sit around 30 degrees F on average, meaning that weather will likely be above freezing on Christmas Day.
It doesn’t necessarily need to be subfreezing for snow to occur, as snow can form in the atmosphere if the temperature is at or below freezing at higher altitudes, even if the surface temperature is slightly above freezing. However, the likelihood of snow decreases as surface temperatures rise above 40 degrees F.
Therefore, many places may still see a White Christmas despite warmer temperatures.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook map, which shows the temperature forecasts between December 27 and January 2, reveals that the likelihood of above-average temperatures is fading across the country, with probabilities dropping in the west.
Another map reveals the probability of a White Christmas across the U.S. based on data from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) between 1981 and 2010, with northern states naturally being much more likely to see snow on December 25 than those in the south.
Are you dreaming of a white Christmas this year?
While the map shows the historical probability that at least 1 inch of snow will be observed on December 25, the actual conditions in any year may vary widely. (So you’re saying there’s a chance?!)
More: pic.twitter.com/UDdtcOHviL
— NOAA Climate.gov (@NOAAClimate) December 16, 2024
With a White Christmas being defined as over one inch of snow on the ground on December 25, the map shows that there is a 90 to 100 percent chance of a White Christmas being seen across the Rockies and the Cascades, as well as the far north of Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and Wisconsin.
“While the map shows the historical probability that at least 1 inch of snow will be observed on December 25, the actual conditions in any year may vary widely from these because the weather patterns present will determine the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas day,” NOAA said.
The most recent 6-10 day precipitation outlook for December 25 to 29 reveals that much of the U.S. is likely to see above-average levels of precipitation (including snow), with the Pacific Northwest and Central U.S. having the highest likelihood.
Only the far Northeast and Mexico border region are expected to see below-average levels of precipitation.
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