Russia used a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) against Ukraine for the first time, Kyiv’s air force said on Thursday, in a move likely intended to send a message from the Kremlin at a crucial point in the nearly three years of war.
The ICBM was launched at the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro from Russia’s southwestern Astrakhan region, Ukraine’s air force said, adding Moscow separately fired a Kinzhal hypersonic missile and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles.
At the time of writing, Russia’s Defense Ministry had not acknowledged the reports, while the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry swerved questions on the alleged ICBM use in a Thursday briefing.
The strike comes shortly after the U.S. closed its embassy in the capital, saying it had “received specific information of a potential significant air attack” on Wednesday.
U.S. officials said earlier this week that Washington had approved Ukraine’s use of American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, against Russian territory in a reversal of a long-held White House policy. Russia said Ukraine had used six ATACMS on Russia’s border Bryansk region in an “escalation” of the conflict.
State Emergency Service of Ukraine/ Telegram
The U.K. has not yet publicly confirmed whether it has given Ukraine the green light to fire British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia, but several British media outlets reported that Kyiv had used the air-launched missiles for the first time.
Earlier this week, Moscow updated its nuclear doctrine to justify a nuclear strike against a nation without nuclear weapons, if that country attacks Russia and is backed by a nuclear power. The change came the same day that Ukraine marked 1,000 days of full-scale war with its neighbor, amid concerns over how U.S. support for Ukraine will change when president-elect Donald Trump steps back into the White House in January.
Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon official, said on Thursday he was “not surprised” that Russia would launch a conventionally-armed ICBM in its war effort against Ukraine.
“It’s a step up in terms of the delivery vehicle,” Townsend said, responding to a Newsweek question during a panel at the Royal United Services Institute, a U.K.-based think tank.
“There are a lot of things that Putin is doing right now to express displeasure over ATACMS,” Townsend said, but also to set the tone for the incoming Trump administration.
What is an intercontinental ballistic missile, and is it a nuclear weapon?
An ICBM is a ballistic missile that can travel distances greater than 5,500 kilometers, or roughly 3,417 miles. They are considered a strategic weapon, able to carry nuclear warheads.
Their long range means that they can threaten an enemy’s soil from thousands of miles away. The U.S. is currently upgrading its Minuteman III ICBMs, which form the ground-based part of its nuclear triad, to Sentinel ICBMs.
The ICBM reported by Ukraine is thought to be a road-mobile RS-26, also known as the Rubezh missile. It can carry a nuclear or conventional payload, or have multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles that carry explosives to several different targets.
However, there are questions about whether an RS-26 was used, or whether it was an intermediate-range ballistic missile able to travel shorter distances. Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said the “characteristics” of the missile, including its speed and altitude, had indicated it was an ICBM, but that investigations were underway.
The RS-26 has been tested at ranges falling below the classification for an ICBM, which has prompted concerns that Russia has gone against the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. This treaty, signed between the U.S. and the then-Soviet Union in the 1980s, banned ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges above 500 kilometers and below 5,500 kilometers.
The Rubezh never officially entered service, and is still classed as under development.
A former Ukrainian official told Newsweek that the ICBM targeting Dnipro carried around 1,200 kilograms of explosives, and “works like a cluster bomb,” dividing into six separate warheads before hitting the target. Ukraine’s air force declined to comment when approached by Newsweek.
Video footage purportedly from the strike appears to show six different clusters of munitions, reportedly hitting the Yuzhmash defense and space plant. Newsweek could not independently verify this.
Serhiy Lysak, the regional governor for the Dnipropetrovsk region covering Dnipro, said an industrial building, several houses, garages and a rehabilitation center were damaged. Two people were injured, Lysak said.
Has an ICBM Been Used Before?
Much is still unclear about the launch, but if confirmed, this would be the first combat use of a conventional ICBM or intermediate-range ballistic missile in history.
Analysts say that if Russia did use a Rubezh missile, it would not be the practical choice for a target like the Dnipro facility.
“The RS-26 is designed to carry nuclear warheads, but evidently it did not do so in this attack,” said William Freer, research fellow at the U.K.-based Council on Geostrategy think tank.
“Russia has likely used the RS-26 as a way to try and intimidate Ukraine’s supporters by raising tensions over the employment of a nuclear capable ballistic missile, one capable of hitting European capitals,” Freer added. “Its use is a signal rather than based on a military need.”
