Ukrainian troops are digging trenches in the Kursk oblast, it has been reported, amid speculation about Kyiv’s plans for the Russian region it entered last week and concerns from pro-Moscow sources about the Kremlin’s response.
Kyiv has revealed little about its intentions following the incursion that started on August 6 and has seen its forces make rapid gains in the border area while Moscow scrambles to come up with an adequate response. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his army on Monday to “dislodge” Ukrainian troops.
The X account Constantine, a Ukrainian combat veteran, suggested that there were excavators on both sides of the front line, posting images of the equipment, which pointed to a longer-term operation for Kyiv’s forces in Kursk.
In a post shared on the Telegram channel Svideteli Bairaktara, Russian military reporter Aleksandr Kharchenko suggested that Ukrainian forces were preparing to stay in the region and said “the enemy is beginning to gain a foothold in our ancestral territory.”
Yuriy Mate/Getty Images
“Once the enemy picks up shovels, in two days it will be just as difficult to take the forest stands as it was near Avdiivka,” he said, referring to the town in Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast. It took Moscow months to push back Kyiv’s forces there, at a cost of thousands of casualties and only after Ukraine ran out of ammunition.
Whether Ukraine will stay in Kursk is unclear, and Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment.
Retired Australian major general Mick Ryan wrote on Substack that it was too early to assess reports of Ukrainian forces digging in in Kursk, which were “not indicative, at this stage, of any intention for long-term occupation.”
However, there are reports that Russian columns in Kursk continue to face Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups, drones and artillery. Evacuations have taken place in the region, such as in the town of Sudzha as well as in Russia’s Belgorod region, which also borders Ukraine. On Saturday, a video purportedly showed Ukrainian troops claim they had captured the Belgorod village of Poroz, 60 miles south of Sudzha.
“Ukraine is likely trying to expand the area of control,” said Emil Kastehelmi, a military expert from the Finland-based OSINT analysis firm Black Bird Group. “As they were unable to take Korenevo, it seems they are trying to flank it from northeast,” he told Newsweek.
“In the Sudzha direction, the built area has caused similar difficulties, so the Ukrainians are looking for alternative routes, while simultaneously fighting in Sudzha and trying to recapture Martynovka,” which pro-Moscow military bloggers said Ukraine has entered. “The operation is not without risks and problems. The Kursk operation likely doesn’t solve some of the greatest issues Ukraine has in the east.
“The Russians are still attacking and slowly gaining ground. Ukraine decided to attack at a time when the enemy hasn’t been stopped in their main focus areas,” he added, noting the potential cost of the operation on Ukraine’s manpower, which would be too high if it only means taking over a few dozen Russian border villages.
Much depends on the reinforcements that Ukrainian troops have in place and as yet, it is not clear what Ukraine’s logistical plan is to resupply and reinforce its troops.
Daniel Kochis, a senior fellow at the Center on Europe and Eurasia at Hudson Institute, said one of Kyiv’s objectives in Kursk is to divert Russian troops from sectors inside Ukraine under pressure. “This is still a question mark as it will take time to see if this bears ultimately fruit,” he told Newsweek. “While some Russian forces from the Kherson direction in southern Ukraine and Kharkiv in the north appear to have been diverted to the Kursk front, Russia for now is mostly assembling a response force from units inside Russia, including new conscripts.
“Ukraine hopes that by holding some Russian territory…when the music stops, if the country has not kicked the Russians out, and finds itself in some sort of negotiations, Kursk will prove a valuable card to have in their hand to trade.”
Ryan outlined that the riskiest of Ukraine’s options with the Kursk operation could be to consolidate the terrain seized and defend it ahead of negotiations, as it could lead to high losses of top-quality troops and equipment.
He also said that Ukraine could choose to fully withdraw back to the border, a move that would preserve troops, humiliate Vladimir Putin, boost morale among Ukrainians and send a message to Russians it can attack their land at will.
“At this time, we have more questions than answers,” Elina Beketova, a democracy fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told Newsweek. “At this point, it’s not clear where it all goes.
“However, it definitely has a psychological effect, creating a very destabilizing impact on the Kremlin leadership. It sends the signal that Ukraine can change the course of the war and win.”
