John Paulson, the hedge fund billionaire who made a fortune betting against the housing market in 2007, has threatened to pull his money from the market if Kamala Harris wins the election, boldly claiming that Donald “I just don’t want a poor person” Trump would help the middle class and Harris would cause a recession.
Speaking to Fox Business on Tuesday, Paulson—a major Trump backer since 2016—said, “If Harris was elected, I would pull my money from the market. I’d go into cash and I’d go into gold, because I think the uncertainty regarding the plans they outlined would create a lot of uncertainty in the markets and likely lower markets.” He also stated: “I’d be very concerned if Harris is elected and pursues the tax plans and other economic plans that she articulated. If they do implement a 25% tax on unrealized gains, that would cause mass selling of almost everything—stocks, bonds, homes, art. I think it would result in a crash in the markets and a pretty quick recession.” On the flip side, after predicting the election would come down to “who’s gonna do better for the middle class,” Paulson claimed, “When you look at the facts, the Trump policies come out better for the average American.”
It’s a big-if-true claim! But what are the thoughts of people who aren’t Trump mega-donors when it comes to the economy under Harris versus under the ex-president?
For one thing, Goldman Sachs said earlier this month that a Harris win would provide a bigger economic boost than a Trump reelection would. For another, economists have said Trump’s tariff plan would cost Americans thousands of dollars a year, a hit that would be most acutely felt by the middle class. Economists have also said that tariff plans floated by Trump would make the lives of American families “much more expensive” and put “millions of people out of work.” Other words used to describe Trump’s idea for an across-the-board 10% tariff include “lunacy,” “a disaster,” and “very, very bad.”
Of course, it’s not hard to see why Paulson is pushing hard for a second Trump term, given that the ex-president’s signature tax cuts disproportionately benefited the richest of the rich and led to US billionaires paying a tax rate lower than that of working families. Naturally, Trump has promised to keep taxes low for the wealthiest people in the country—and made such a vow at a $50 million fundraiser hosted by, wait for it, John Paulson.
Not surprisingly, Trump has reportedly floated Paulson as a potential Treasury secretary in a second administration.
