The Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox opened a four-game series on Thursday night with the Tigers taking the 5-0 victory. The Red Sox evened the series in Game 2, which isn’t surprising as both teams are hovering around .500. They’re also both ten games back in their respective divisions. As if the splits can’t get any closer, they’re also both 5-5 over their last ten games. How do we lean when the margins between two teams are this thin? It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Tigers-Red Sox prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Casey Mize finally got some run support in his last outing against the Blue Jays. However, he couldn’t hold on long enough to get the decision, as he exited after 4 1/3 innings with eight hits and three earned runs allowed. The game got out of hand after Mize left, as the final score was 14-11. Mize has a 1-3 record this season with a 4.71 ERA.
Some pitchers have spectacular ERAs but can’t get the run support to improve their win/loss record. Then, you have pitchers like Brayan Bello who has a 4.18 ERA last season with a 6-2 record. Bello’s past three starts haven’t gone as well, as he’s allowed 11 runs over that span in 15 2/3 innings. It’s a different issue for every outing. He allowed three home runs in the first of the three-game stretch, then corrected that issue and walked six batters over his last two starts.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Tigers-Red Sox Odds
Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-205)
Moneyline: +110
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+168)
Moneyline: -130
Over: 9 (-110)
Under: 9 (-110)
How to Watch Tigers-Red Sox
Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35 AM PT
TV: Bally Sports Network, NESN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Tigers Will Cover The Spread/Win
Casey Mize has a 4.71 ERA this season, which isn’t good when he also can’t get any run support. The Tigers haven’t scored more than three runs in four of his last five outings, but this could be a game where the dam breaks like it did in his previous outing against the Blue Jays. Bello allowed 11 runs over his last three starts and hasn’t advanced past the sixth inning. Once Bello comes out, the Red Sox bullpen hasn’t had a good run recently, recording a 6.08 ERA over their last three outings. The Tigers performed well against righties over their last ten games, owning a .294 on-base percentage and five runs/nine.
Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
This game may be a battle of the bullpens since Casey Mize hasn’t thrown over 100 pitches this season. The Red Sox should be confident if they face the Tigers bullpen for 4-5 innings in this game. The Tigers have a 4.10 ERA from their relievers and an abysmal 7.04 mark over their last three games. The Red Sox are a better offensive team at Fenway, owning a .319 on-base percentage and 4.7 runs/nine.
Final Tigers-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
Who knows what’s going to happen in this game once the starting pitchers come out of the game? The Tigers hold the advantage in the starting pitching department, but the uncertainty of both bullpens could have the game go either way in the later innings. The starting pitchers can shut down the offenses for the first half of the game, but both pitchers are capable of a blowup, and the lack of bullpen depth for both teams could push this game over the total.
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Final Tigers-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Over 9 (-110)
