Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz will face off against his Democratic challenger, Representative Colin Allred, on Tuesday night in their only U.S. Senate debate, just three weeks before Election Day.
Polling has shown that Cruz, who is vying for a third term in office, holds a slight lead over Allred, who has represented parts of Dallas’ northeastern suburbs since 2019. But the race has grown closer in recent weeks, and Democrats view Texas as a potential surprise win as both parties fight for control of the U.S. Senate.
Cruz won by a slim margin when his seat was up for reelection in 2018, beating Democrat Beto O’Rourke 50.9 percent to 48.3 percent. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
Both candidates have drawn tens of millions of dollars in campaign donations. Allred, who has been endorsed by former Republican Representatives Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, outraised Cruz by nearly $10 million in the third quarter. Cruz has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images; ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images
Cruz vs. Allred: What do polls show?
According to FiveThirtyEight, Cruz is ahead by 4 points (48.5 percent to 44.6 percent) on average across statewide polling. But the gap has shrunk over the past month. On September 1, Cruz was up by 5.4 points on average. On September 15, the Republican incumbent was leading by 4.5 points on average.
In a statewide poll released by the University of Houston on Tuesday, Cruz was found to be leading 50 percent to 46 percent, putting his lead outside the poll’s margin of error of 2.69 percentage points. The survey was conducted between September 26 and October 10 and is based on the responses of 1,329 likely voters.
A poll from the New York Times and Siena College released last week gave Cruz the same 4-point lead (48 percent to 44 percent) based on the responses of 617 likely voters between September 29 and October 4. The poll’s margin of error was 2.4 points.
The chart below shows a breakdown of other polls in the race conducted in October. The gray column combines responses for third-party candidates or those who responded “other” in the survey.
Despite Cruz’s lead, an internal GOP poll by the super PAC Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) raised red flags for his chances earlier this week. The PAC’s October survey found that he was ahead by just 1 point, compared to his 3-point gap in September.
“We still have a lot of work to do to maximize our gains in this critical Senate election,” SLF President Steven Law wrote in a memo that accompanied the poll, obtained by Politico.
How to watch debate
Tuesday’s debate will take place at the WFAA Studios in Dallas and is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. CDT (8 p.m. ET). It will be moderated by WFAA reporter Jason Whitley and Dallas Morning News reporter Gromer Jeffers Jr.
The event will be live-streamed across TEGNA stations in Texas on the air and on the stations’ digital platforms. It will also be streamed by C-SPAN here.
Why is race important?
There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs this election. Democrats currently hold a slim majority, even with 47 seats to the Republicans’ 49. Independents Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Angus King of Maine and Joe Manchin of West Virginia caucus with the Democrats, while Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, a former Democrat, chose not to caucus with the GOP, so the Democrats kept control of the chamber.
Democrats have set their sights on flipping Cruz and Florida’s Rick Scott’s seats in November, while Republicans are hoping to flip seats in Ohio, Arizona and Montana.
Several election models have predicted that Republicans could flip control of the Senate on Election Day. Forecaster 270toWin projects that the GOP will secure 51 of the 100 seats, with Democrats taking 48 seats, including two independents. The race in Ohio, where Senator Sherrod Brown is facing reelection, is considered a “toss-up.”
YouGov also projected that Republicans could take control of the Senate, although Democrats are poised to take control of the House, meaning control of each chamber would flip. Per YouGov’s predictions, Republicans are set to take 51 seats, including Texas. The site puts the Ohio Senate race and the race in Arizona to fill Sinema’s seat in the “toss-up” category. Democrats, on the other hand, are set to take 47 seats, per YouGov’s forecast.
Cruz warned last week that Democrats “are coming after me with everything they have” in his race against Allred, telling Fox News’ Sean Hannity, “They were exactly right: If they take Texas, they can take over the country completely.”
When is early voting in Texas?
Early voting in Texas will kick off on October 21, less than a week after the Cruz-Allred debate. Registered voters can vote early at any polling place in their county. Voters can search for early voting locations by entering their information at VoteTexas.gov.
The deadline to register to vote in the state has passed, but eligible voters have until October 25 to request to vote by mail.
