What would happen if computer engines played chess instead of humans on the board? Game 9 of the FIDE World Championship was as close to a perfect illustration of it as you can get. Dommaraju Gukesh and Ding Liren both registered accuracies in excess of 99%, which doesn’t lend itself to any kind of entertainment, as games 7 and 8 did, when their accuracy percentages dwindled to the early 90s.
As a result, heading into the third rest day, there’s still nothing to separate the two, with the match tied at 4.5 points apiece. There are five games to go, Ding will play three of them with white, as the two players get ready for the home stretch of this world championship battle.
How have the games been so far?
Mostly entertaining, mostly high quality, as you’d expect from a world championship. Like game 2 and game 9, there has been the odd uneventful draw, but that is to be expected when you have a 14-game schedule featuring just two players.
Perhaps the biggest pattern that has emerged is the inability of either player to convert advantages into wins, after game 3. After two decisive games in the opening three, it had the makings of a topsy-turvy affair, but since then, there have been six consecutive draws.
Three of the six draws could’ve easily become decisive games. Gukesh missed opportunities in games 7 and 8. In fact, in game 8, Gukesh had a potentially decisive advantage according to the engine, but he made a series of inaccuracies to leave Ding in a winning position, and from there he made inaccuracies before the match ended in a draw. Ding himself had advantageous positions but has chosen to play safe and take draws early in both game 2 and game 5.
One must say that some of the draws, like the ones in game 4 and game 7 were just down to excellent defensive skill from both players – once from Gukesh and once from Ding. So, while there has been no shortage of offensive opportunities, the players’ defensive skills have really come to the fore in times when they have needed it.
Gukesh’s assessment of the games so far after game 9 summed things up perfectly, when he said both him and Ding have certainly missed some opportunities to have more than the solitary win on the board.
Ding said that the games so far have shown that there isn’t a clear better player in this match, so it would be tough for either to force a win.
What’s the chance that they play out five more draws?
Well, now there’s also the added pressure of making a mistake this close to the end, which could finish their chances of winning the world championship. Gukesh only knows one way and doesn’t really like draws, as evidenced by him refusing three-fold repetition twice already in this match. However, even for him, the prospect of perhaps overreaching and losing a game doesn’t seem a nice one, particularly with a very small window of opportunity to make a comeback. So, it might now be a necessary proposition for Gukesh to control some of his instincts in the interest of mitigating risks.
There is a distinct chance, therefore, that we might get five more draws, which would take us to tiebreaks, which will be played under faster time controls – first rapid and then blitz, if needed.
Who has the advantage in the tie-breaks?
Most definitely, Ding. His FIDE ratings in both rapid and blitz are in the high-2700s, while Gukesh’s are in the mid-2600s. Gukesh’s way of playing chess is widely accepted as the reason why he becomes better when given more time on the board.
Unlike some others, he doesn’t really play on intuition or feel for the best moves in a position. Every move he makes is thoroughly calculated and studied in his head before it is played on the board. The shorter the time control, the less time he has to make those calculations, and therefore, a higher chance that those calculations could be erroneous.
So Gukesh would have to force a win in the next five games?
If he can win one and then knuckle down to play out draws which he doesn’t like, that’s the perfect scenario. However, he must be wary of pushing too hard to finish the match in the classical format, just because of the fear of Ding being the better player in rapid and blitz.
He only has to go back to his idol Viswanathan Anand’s title win in 2010 to see why such an approach could be a big mistake. Back then, the scores were tied heading into the final classical game, Veselin Topalov pushed too hard for a win with white due to a fear that he couldn’t beat Anand in faster time controls, and he ended up giving away the game and the match.
So, it is reasonable to expect that Gukesh wouldn’t want tie-breakers. Does that mean he becomes desperate for a decisive game in the next five? Would that mean Ding might be given a chance too, to retain his title even before tie-breakers? All possibilities are open, and that is what makes the next week of chess a must-follow.
