Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown’s lead over Republican challenger Bernie Moreno has narrowed to just two points in a recent poll, intensifying the race for Ohio’s Senate seat ahead of the 2024 election.
The poll, conducted by Emerson College for The Hill between September 3 and September 5, surveyed 945 likely Ohio voters. It found that 46 percent of respondents supported Brown, while 44 percent backed Moreno.
Brown’s slim advantage is now within the poll’s margin of error of +/-3.1 percent, reflecting a tightening contest as both candidates gear up for what could be one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races.
Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks Emerson College as the ninth best pollster on its list of 277 firms based on its historical track record and methodology, giving it a rating of 2.9 stars out of three.
Bill Clark, Paul Vernon/ASSOCIATED PRESS
This survey reveals a shift from the broader margins seen in earlier polls. Last week, a poll by SoCal Strategies, commissioned by right-leaning Red Eagle Politics, gave Brown a five-point lead over Moreno, with the Democrat securing 50 percent of the vote against Moreno’s 45 percent. That survey, conducted from August 31 to September 1, polled 600 likely voters.
Despite serving as an Ohio Senator since 2007, Brown’s seat is by no means a safe Democratic hold, given the state’s rightward tilt in recent election cycles. For decades, Ohio was seen as a bellwether state, having chosen the eventual winning presidential candidate in every election between Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to Donald Trump in 2016. The trend was bucked in 2020 when Trump managed to retain Ohio by eight points (53 percent to 45 percent), but lost the White House to President Joe Biden.
Flipping a seat in Ohio would help Republicans in their attempt to take control of the Senate, which is currently split between 50 senators whose caucus is with the Democrats and 49 with the Republican Party, one seat is vacant.
Brown has been in the lead in every poll versus Moreno in 2024, despite Ohio being a state that has leaned Republican in recent national elections. Previous polls have shown the Democrat maintaining modest leads, ranging from four to six points, but Moreno’s ability to close the gap in the Emerson College survey reflects a potential shift in voter sentiment as the race heats up.
An ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters which took place between July 20 and August 12 put Brown ahead by five points, with 53 percent of the vote against Moreno’s 48 percent.
A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impacts Research survey of 600 likely voters put Brown on 46 percent versus 42 percent for Moreno, giving the Democrat a four-point lead. The poll took place between July 23 and 28.
Newsweek contacted Senator Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno for comment via email and online inquiry form, respectively, outside of regular office hours.
