Foreign adversaries, including Russia, China, and Iran, may be ramping up efforts to meddle in the U.S. 2024 presidential election, according to a new report from Microsoft.
The tech giant’s threat intelligence division revealed that these countries are expanding the landscape of coordinated campaigns to sway public opinion and disrupt the democratic process, echoing patterns seen in past U.S. elections.
What Does the Report Show?
According to the report, a range of actions are shown by these foreign powers with Russian operatives doubling down on targeting Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, with AI-generated disinformation, including fabricated videos meant to damage her reputation.
Among the fake videos was a staged clip of a park ranger impersonator claiming Harris killed an endangered rhinoceros in Zambia, as well as a video sharing baseless allegations about her running mate Tim Walz, which U.S. intelligence officials also attributed to Russia this week.
In response, Morgan Finkelstein, national security spokeswoman for the Harris campaign, condemned Russia’s efforts.
Michel Euler/AP
At the same time, according to the report, Chinese-linked influence campaigns are focused on attacking down-ballot races, specifically Republican candidates who have been vocal critics of China. Figures like Representative Barry Moore, an Alabama Republican, and Senator Marsha Blackburn, a Tennessee Republican, have been frequent targets of Chinese disinformation campaigns.
Meanwhile, Iran has allegedly been monitoring U.S. election-related websites and major media outlets, raising concerns about potential cyber-attacks similar to those attempted in the 2020 election when Iran allegedly sent emails aimed at intimidating U.S. voters.
Iran, which has spent the 2024 campaign allegedly going after former President Donald Trump with disinformation, previously interfered in the 2020 election by reportedly posing as members of the far-right Proud Boys in an attempt to intimidate voters.
This year, Iranian-linked actors have weaponized the divisive Israel-Hamas war to influence U.S. voters. One example involves an Iranian persona urging Americans on social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) to abstain from voting due to perceived pro-Israel biases among the candidates.
The report notes that while some of these efforts have garnered little attention, others have been amplified by unwitting Americans, exposing thousands of voters to propaganda.
How Russia, China and Iran Have Responded
Russia, China and Iran have all rejected claims that they are seeking to meddle with the U.S. election.
“The presidential elections are the United States’ domestic affairs. China has no intention and will not interfere in the US election,” the Chinese Embassy said in a statement.
“Having already unequivocally and repeatedly announced, Iran neither has any motive nor intent to interfere in the U.S. election; and, it therefore categorically repudiates such accusations,” read a statement from Iran’s mission to the United Nations.
The Associated Press contacted the Russian Embassy for comment but did not immediately receive a response.
What U.S. Officials Are Saying
Despite these threats, U.S. officials remain confident that the nation’s election infrastructure is secure. However, the potential impact on public opinion remains a significant concern.
As Clint Watts, general manager of Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center, explained, “History has shown that the ability of foreign actors to rapidly distribute deceptive content can significantly impact public perception and electoral outcomes.”
He warned, “With a particular focus on the 48 hours before and after Election Day, voters, government institutions, candidates and parties must remain vigilant to deceptive and suspicious activity online.”
Even as Russia, China and Iran try to influence voters, intelligence officials said Tuesday there is still no indication they are plotting significant attacks on election infrastructure as a way to disrupt the outcome.
According to Jen Easterly, director of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, who spoke to the AP earlier this month, improvements in election security over the past several years have bolstered confidence in the integrity of the process
U.S. officials have also warned that the real danger may come in the aftermath of the election. On Tuesday, intelligence officials said Russia and Iran may try to encourage violent protests in the U.S. after the election, setting the stage for potential complications in the post-election period.
This article includes reporting from The Associated Press.
