Vladimir Putin has been dealt a blow by two of his closest allies who have failed to endorse the sending of North Korean troops to fight for Russian forces against Ukraine.
Experts are also casting doubt on the strategic worth of such a move by the Russian leader.
The U.S. confirmed on Wednesday it had evidence Pyongyang had deployed soldiers to Russia following reports from South Korea and Ukraine, which said the secretive state was planning to involve thousands of troops in the war.
However, the leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, who has relied on Putin to maintain his grip on power, suggested that such a move would be a bad idea.
Insisting that Putin “would never try to persuade another country to involve its army” in the war, Lukashenko told the BBC on the sidelines of the BRICS summit, that it would be “a step toward the escalation of the conflict if the armed forces of any country, even Belarus, were on the contact line.”
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At the same summit of emerging economies held this week in the Russian city of Kazan, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, said there should be “no expansion of the battlefields, no escalation of hostilities, and no fanning flames,” according to Chinese state media.
During the course of the war he started, Putin has relied on a large increase in trade with China to offset economic losses caused by Western-led sanctions and he has championed his close ties with Xi.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, D.C. research group, noted how Xi had said that BRICS members must prevent the spreading of the war to “third parties” as he called for the “swift de-escalation of the situation in Ukraine.”
BRICS was founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China and first met in 2009. It now comprises nine member nations and also includes Ethiopia, South Africa and Egypt.
Michael Butler, political science professor at Clark University in Worcester (MA) said the geopolitical significance of North Korean troops fighting for Russia “shouldn’t be minimized” however, “it is less clear that the infusion represents a major force multiplier, at least in the short run.”
“The Korean People’s Army is massive in size but has not engaged in prolonged active combat since the 1950s, is entirely unfamiliar with the conflict environment in Ukraine, and has long been plagued by supply and morale problems as well as inferior technology,” he told Newsweek.
“In some ways this represents the latest in a series of prominent examples of Putin’s outsourcing of the conduct of his war, which is telling from the standpoint of Russia’s own capacity to wage it,” he added.
As Russian forces face high casualties, Putin has increasingly relied on North Korean artillery shells and other ammunition. But Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence Directorate said this help is extending to manpower with around 11,000 North Korean infantry troops who are training in Russia’s Far East and will be ready to fight by November 1.
The first group of North Korean troops have been sent to the Russian region of Kursk where some have tried to desert, according to reports. Ukraine launched an incursion into the Russian region on August 6 and Putin is said to be planning to use the North Korean soldiers in his fight to recapture territory.
U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday that any North Korean troops fighting for Russia would be “fair game” for Ukrainian forces and that Kyiv’s military “will defend themselves against North Korean soldiers the same way they’re defending themselves against Russian soldiers.”
David Silbey, history professor at Cornell University (NY), said that the move by Pyongyang is to show its commitment to the Russian alliance.
“It’s highly unlikely that the North Koreans will supply enough soldiers to make any substantial difference, even if they are special forces,” he told Newsweek. “They’ll almost certainly see combat and we’ll likely hear a lot about that, to emphasize the sacrifice.
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“During WWII, Winston Churchill famously talked about how having Americans die fighting to protect Britain would cement the alliance like nothing else,” he added.
There are also questions over whether North Korean troops and weapons alone can change what is happening on the battlefield.
In comments emailed to Newsweek, Markus Garlauskas, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Snowcroft Center for Strategy and Security said the move may backfire on Russia because it “could trigger increased South Korean support to Ukraine that could quickly counterbalance what North Korea provides.”
However, he said Pyongyang could benefit in the long run from experiencing Russian military technology and capabilities at close hand which could “fundamentally reshape the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and in the broader Indo-Pacific.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could reach “a tipping point in his escalation calculus that leads to a military crisis or armed conflict on the peninsula,” which could pull in China and the U.S. This “would indirectly influence the war in Ukraine far more than what North Korean troops would bring to the fight itself,” Garlauskas added.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian foreign ministry for comment.
