This offseason’s free agency class is loaded with starting pitching talent. There are a ton of aces available including a handful of former Cy Young winners.
Despite all this talent that includes a few future Hall of Famers, the top dog of free agency is Corbin Burnes.
Burnes is expected to be the most sought-after pitcher of the offseason and there’s good reason behind it.
Burnes, 30, has posted ERAs of 2.11, 2.43, 2.94, 3.39, and 2.92 over the last five years respectively. In that time, Burnes is a four-time All-Star and a one-time Cy Young winner. He will likely finish second in this year’s American League Cy Young voting too.
MLB insider Jon Heyman of the New York Post has already connected the New York Yankees to Burnes.
“The Yankees checked on the free-agent ace pitchers — Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell — but it remains uncertain whether they would do Soto and an ace pitcher, too,” Heyman wrote.
Where could the dominant ace land this winter?
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New York Yankees
Heyman has already connected the Yankees to Burnes, so that should be enough to draw speculation. The issue here will be the money.
In a dream world, the Yankees land Juan Soto, which would handicap their spending for other top free agents. Winning a bidding war for both Soto and Burnes in the same offseason would be nearly impossible.
If the Yankees decide to move on from a starter like Marcus Stroman this winter, that would clear the spot in the rotation and the money to sign Burnes. It’s a long shot, but after the heart-breaking end to 2024, I wouldn’t rule anything out for the Yankees’ winter spending.
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres are some of the bigger spenders each season. That could be especially true after their rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers, spent over $1 billion last offseason.
San Diego was the only team that truly had Los Angeles on the ropes during the 2024 postseason. But even San Diego’s loaded roster was no match for the handicapped Dodgers team.
With the Dodgers returning Shohei Ohtani to the mound while also looking to add more impact free agents, the Padres need to keep up. Adding Burnes to a rotation with Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, and Michael King would be a huge step forward.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Can you have a conversation about the top free agents in the league without mentioning the Dodgers?
After they inked Ohtani to a contract that includes $680 million in deferred money, it’s easy to count them out of the top free agents in this offseason’s class. But Ohtani is making $2 million a year for the next nine years for the sole purpose that the Dodgers can use more money to add players around him.
Adding Burnes feels ultra-unrealistic for Los Angeles, but it isn’t an organization that should ever be counted out. Every player has their price and I’ve never seen the Dodgers come up short of money.
Detroit Tigers
Placing the Detroit Tigers on this list may come as a shock to a lot of people because Burnes is routinely linked to the big markets around the league.
But if any team in the league earned the right for their front office to reward them by spending big in free agency, it’s the Tigers.
Detroit practically only had one starting pitcher in the postseason this year, albeit, it was the best pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal. But ultimately, its biggest hole was in the starting pitching rotation.
Detroit has the opportunity to emerge as the dark horse for the best starting pitchers in free agency, though the more realistic options include Jack Flaherty and Max Fried.
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are going to be connected to just about every ace that’s available in free agency this offseason. Boston has an All-Star starter in Tanner Houck, but Houck just isn’t on the level of some of the pitchers available this winter.
To keep up with the Baltimore Orioles and the Yankees, Boston needs to buy big. Adding Burnes would do that in the best way possible. The Red Sox won’t be involved in trying to acquire Juan Soto, who a lot of teams on this list will be chasing, so they have the opportunity to undercut some teams in the market for Burnes.
New York Mets
There’s a world where Steve Cohen opens his wallet so wide that the New York Mets are able to acquire multiple top-ten free agents this winter.
Money will not be an issue in the Mets’ pursuit of any free agent this winter. There’s not a richer owner in baseball than the Mets’ Cohen.
New York will be pursuing top free agents like Soto, Pete Alonso, Willy Adames, and Burnes. If the Mets land enough of their position player targets, they’re likely to take a step back and target pitchers like Fried and Flaherty rather than Burnes.
Baltimore Orioles
Honestly, the Orioles should just hand Burnes a blank check and call it a day. There’s nothing any team on this list could do if the Orioles opted for that strategy. But, sadly, that’s just not how the world works.
Baltimore has every reason in the world to bring Burnes back. The O’s dealt away top prospects to acquire him and only received one year of production from the ace starter. If they lose him to free agency, it would set their team back quite a bit.
Keeping up with the big spenders like the Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and the Red Sox would be nearly impossible if Baltimore can’t bring its ace back.
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