As the Atlantic hurricane season comes to a close, another potential tropical storm is forming in the Caribbean.
“A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its latest update. “Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression will likely form late this week as the system moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea.”
The forecaster said its chances of forming in the next 48 hours are low at 30 percent, but there is a 70 percent chance that it will intensify at some point in the next seven days. If it does form, the next name on the NHC list is Sara.
“After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down and meander through the weekend,” the update continues. “Interests across the Western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.”
A map produced by the NHC shows the potential storm is to the southwest of Haiti and is expected to move westward toward the Central American countries of Honduras and Nicaragua as the week continues.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
“The development process is already underway,” Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist said, adding there is a “high risk for potential tropical development” across the Western Caribbean between November 14 and 18.
“There are showers and thunderstorms around Hispaniola that will move west. The storms will get a boost on Wednesday when wind shear starts to fade away,” Rayno said. “A front will provide more upward motion by midweek, helping these storms organize.”
The potential storm follows swiftly on from Hurricane Rafael, which hit Cuba last week. Making landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with prior wind speeds peaking at 115 miles per hour, it knocked out the country’s entire power grid. It was the strongest November tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico on record, matched only by 1985’s Hurricane Kate.
“Don’t let your guard down just because the calendar says we’re heading into mid-November,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. “Conditions and water temperatures in the tropics are still primed for tropical storms to form in the final weeks of hurricane season.
“History shows that Florida faces a higher risk of tropical impacts than any other state during the month of November,” DaSilva added.
Ocean temperatures remain unusually high for this time of year, DaSilva said, and the Caribbean is also witnessing near-record ocean heat content for mid-November. These elevated water temperatures may enhance the potential for storm development in the coming weeks.
