Players Championship: Odds, prediction, value picks for TPC Sawgrass

The marquee event of the PGA Tour season has arrived. The top 144 players on the PGA Tour will tee it up on The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, the home of The Players Championship since 1981.

The Pete Dye design features the world-famous 17th hole, a par-3 almost surrounded by water. The course never fails to entertain and surely, it will amuse golf fans again this week.

So, let’s get to the 2024 Players Championship odds.

The Players Championship Odds

Every year, The Players Championship prides itself on having, “The strongest field in golf.” This week is no different, despite the lack of LIV golfers present.

Here are the current odds for players to win, per DraftKings:

Scottie Scheffler +500
Rory McIlroy +1200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Viktor Hovland +2200
Justin Thomas +2200
Will Zalatoris +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Max Homa +2800
Wyndham Clark +3000
Ludvig Åberg +3000
Shane Lowry +3000
Sam Burns +3000
Jordan Spieth +3000

The Players Championship Predictions

Water comes into play on all 18 holes at TPC Sawgrass, which helps make this one of the most unpredictable tournaments of the season.

Despite that, top players have emerged victorious since 2019, when The Players returned to its March spot on the calendar. Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy are the four most recent winners at TPC Sawgrass. At the time of their victories, these players’ average Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) was 5.25.

Scheffler re-established himself as the top player in the world after his five-shot win a season ago.

Max Homa primed for another top-finish

After inexplicably missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open, Max Homa has put together two solid performances at the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, tying for 16th and eighth, respectively.

Homa putted very well at Bay Hill, ranking third in strokes gained putting. But overall, his short game has shown up in big spots this season. He ranks 10th in scrambling and 15th in bogey avoidance.

Max Homa, PGA Tour, The Players Championship — Max Homa hits his tee shot at TPC Sawgrass’ 17th hole during the final round of the 2023 Players Championship.

You need to avoid the big numbers at TPC Sawgrass, and Homa has done that so far in 2024.

Plus, he played well there last year, tying for eighth—it would have been a top-5 if not for his water-ball on 17. Homa doubled his penultimate hole, finishing at 8-under for the championship.

We like him to finish in the top 10 once again at +260. If you are really feeling the Homa hype, the price for a top 5 finish is pretty nice at +550.

Min Woo Lee rebounds after tough weekend at Bay Hill

Min Woo Lee was our value pick at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he got off to a solid start with an opening 3-under 69.

But the beast that is Bay Hill stumped the young Australian over the weekend, as Lee carded rounds of 73, 76, and 73 to tie for 44th.

Still, Lee is one of the most talented young players in golf, and that was on display at last year’s Players Championship. He played in the final pairing alongside Scheffler, trailing him by two shots at 12-under through 54 holes.

His final 18 did not come as easily, as he shot a 4-over 76 to ultimately tie for 18th. Yet, Lee has proven that he can hit any shot required of him, a necessity to succeed at TPC Sawgrass.

If you are feeling really dangerous, you can get Lee to win at +11000. But we like him to finish in the top 10 at +500.

Min Woo Lee, PGA Tour, Arnold Palmer Invitational — Min Woo Lee.

Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa struggle again

Two of the game’s top stars have struggled so far in 2024.

Viktor Hovland has changed golf coaches again and is now working on his swing with Grant Waite.

In addition, his improved short game has completely abandoned him. So far this season, Hovland ranks 173rd in strokes gained around the green and 144th in scrambling percentage.

A season ago, when Hovland won the FedEx Cup, he ranked 86th in strokes gained around the green and got up and down successfully 62% of the time—ranking 48th.

Perhaps that explains why the Norwegian has not come close to finishing in the top 10 so far this season. We do not anticipate him finding his form on a course where trouble lurks everywhere.

The same can be said for Collin Morikawa, who missed the cut for the second time this season at Bay Hill.

Collin Morikawa, PGA Tour, Arnold Palmer Invitational — Collin Morikawa during the second round of the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Morikawa made two double bogies and two other bogies over his first six holes on Friday, leading to an 8-over 80. He missed the cut by three shots.

His short-game metrics are poor, too. He currently ranks 100th in strokes gained around the green and 135th in strokes gained putting.

If you are trying to re-discover your game, TPC Sawgrass is a hard place to do so.

Players Championship Long Shot

Since the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in early February, Tom Hoge has quietly been one of the best players on the PGA Tour.

Hoge—not Scheffler—ranks first on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching the green and first on tour in proximity to the hole.

His superb iron play, which is required at TPC Sawgrass, has produced good results, too.

He tied for 6th at Pebble Beach, 17th at the WM Phoenix Open, and then finished solo 8th at Riviera to wrap up a successful West Coast swing.

Tom Hoge, PGA Tour, The Players Championship — Tom Hoge during the final round of the 2023 Players Championship.

His first event in Florida did not go as well, as he tied for 28th at the Cognizant Classic. However, he bounced back with a solid finish at Bay Hill, tying for 12th.

Once again, he led the Arnold Palmer Invitational field in strokes gained approaching the green. But his driver and putter let him down, which explains why he finished at 3-under.

But if he can keep it in play off the tee, and drain some putts at TPC Sawgrass, Hoge could very well emerge as an unlikely winner. He is +5500 to win, but we like him to finish in the top 5 at +1200 the best.

The Players Championship Pick

Fresh off his dominant win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we like Scottie Scheffler to win The Players Championship for the second consecutive year.

Simply put, Scheffler is playing in a league of his own. He leads the tour in scoring average, strokes gained overall, and strokes gained off the tee. He has hit 78% of his greens in regulation, also ranking at the top of the PGA Tour.

His recent play is reminiscent of Tiger Woods, and Scheffler will achieve something that not even Woods has done this week: repeat at TPC Sawgrass.

In fact, no player has ever repeated as The Players Champion. But we like Scheffler to become the first player to do so, relying on his superior play tee-to-green and his new mallet putter to win yet again.

He is +500 to win, which, frankly, might be too low of a price.

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Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.