Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno is receiving significantly more outside PAC support than Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s Senate race, according to new data.
Ohio’s Senate race could play a key role in whether Democrats retain the majority in the upper chamber. Ohio was once a battleground that has slowly drifted toward Republicans in recent elections, but Brown has shown an ability to outrun other Democrats in the Rust Belt state. But presidential turnout and the continued decline of ticket splitting has fueled GOP hopes that Moreno could win the toss-up race in the state where former President Donald Trump is expected to top Vice President Kamala Harris.
Brown, first elected to the Senate in 2006, currently has more money in the bank than Moreno, who won the GOP primary with Trump’s endorsement despite concerns that other, more moderate, Republicans may have made a stronger candidate.
Despite trailing in money in the bank, outside PACs have spent nearly $90 million in efforts to support Moreno throughout the campaign thus far, according to independent expenditure data posted to X (formerly Twitter) by Rob Pyers, the research director for nonpartisan group California Target Book.
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Meanwhile, pro-Brown PACs have spent $22.5 million on the race, according to the data.
According to the nonprofit OpenSecrets, Moreno has received more than $50 million support from two super PACs alone.
Defend American Jobs, a super PAC affiliated with the cryptocurrency industry, has spent nearly $35 million on the race in support of Moreno. Meanwhile, the Senate Leadership Fund—affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican—has spent more than $20 million on the race, according to OpenSecrets.
Meanwhile, the Democratic-aligned WinSenate PAC has spent nearly $20 million on advertisements attacking Moreo, according to OpenSecrets.
Even though pro-Moreno PACs are spending more on the race than pro-Brown PACs, Brown’s campaign has a fundraising advantage over Moreno.
The Democratic senator has raised about $53 million, compared to Moreno’s $15 million, according to data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC). As of the end of June, Brown had about $10.7 million money in the bank, compared to Moreno’s roughly $4.5 million.
During the second quarter of 2022, Brown raised $12.8 million, while Moreno raised $6.8 million in the same time period, reported Ohio-based news station WOUB.
Newsweek reached out to Brown’s campaign via email and Moreno’s campaign via his campaign contact form for comment.
Moreno has focused his campaign on issues like immigration and the economy, while Brown has highlighted his support for reproductive rights, which has been a sore spot for Republicans in the years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the case that guaranteed abortion rights across the country.
The ruling turned the issue back to the states. Several conservative states quickly moved to ban abortion in most circumstances. Despite Ohio’s conservative tilt, its voters in 2023 passed an amendment protecting access to abortion.
Moreno has faced backlash over the past week for comments he made about women and abortion during a town hall on Friday.
You know, the left has a lot of single issue voters,” he said. “Sadly, by the way, there’s a lot of suburban women, a lot of suburban women that are like, ‘Listen, abortion is it. If I can’t have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I will vote for anybody else.'”
FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate shows Brown with a narrow 2.4 point lead over Moreno in recent polls.
Brown led in most polls over the summer, but some recent polls showed Moreno up in the race.
The RMG Research/Napolitan Institute poll surveyed 781 likely voters from September 18 to September 20 and found Moreno with a 2-point lead over Brown (48 percent to 46 percent).
Meanwhile, a Moring Consult poll conducted among 1,488 likely voters from September 9 to September 18 found Brown up two points (46 percent to 44 percent). An Emerson College/The Hill poll found Brown up by about two points (46 percent to 44 percent).
The Cook Political Report classifies Ohio’s Senate race as a toss-up, meaning that both parties have a good chance at winning.
Democrats are vying to hold onto to their narrow majority in the Senate, presently a 51-49 split, but are facing increasingly difficult odds defending seats in Republican-leaning state.
Republicans are widely expected to flip West Virginia’s seat vacated by Senator Joe Manchin, meaning Democrats must either hold onto Ohio and Montana, where Senator Jon Tester has faced a flurry of troubling polls showing Republican Tim Sheehy leading, or flip seats in Florida and Texas, where polls still show Democrats trailing.
If Democrats lose Ohio, their chances of holding a Senate majority would rely on three races where Republicans have a polling lead.
