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IT doesn’t receive nearly as much attention as the presidential election, but there are reasons to believe the race for the US House of Representatives may be one of the most crucial parts of Tuesday’s action.
While the race for the White House between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has been scrutinized for months, and the Senate comes down to a matter of flipping one or two seats, the House race is far more fluid and harder to call.
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Republicans currently control 220 seats to the Democrats’ 212, with three vacancies.
Many of the most closely-contested House campaigns are being fought beyond the presidential swing states, including in New York and Texas.
Nine of those races could shape not just their districts or their states, but the next four years of American government.
DELAWARE’S AT-LARGE DISTRICT
Sarah McBride is running as a Democrat against Republican John Whalen III, a retired cop for the lone seat in Delaware.
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If elected, McBride would be the first openly trans member of the House.
She previously worked for President Joe Biden’s late son Beau Biden.
In 2020, she became the first openly transgender person to serve in a US state Senate, and is expected to easily win her seat in solidly-Democratic Delaware.
McBride has played down the historic nature of what her win could represent, instead pointing to her history of “Bringing Democrats and Republicans together,” in a recent interview.
“That’s what I’ve been campaigning on,” she said. “I’m not running on my identity.”
MICHIGAN’S 10TH DISTRICT
Michigan is a crucial swing state that both Harris and Trump will be desperate to win to secure their path to the White House.
Its 10th Congressional District, which covers much of the northeastern suburbs of Detroit, is often a closely-fought race.
Incumbent John James, a Republican, is fighting off a challenge from Democrat Carl Marlinga.
This is one of the top seats the Dems are looking to flip if they want to regain the House.
It could also indicate which way this bellwether state is turning.
This race is a rematch of 2022’s election, but with more than $9 million poured into this race, both main parties will be watching events here closely.
NEBRASKA’S 2ND DISTRICT
As Nebraska currently awards three of its five Electoral College votes based on the results in each of its three congressional districts, the so-called “blue dot,” as the 2nd Congressional District is known, is set to play an outsized role in Tuesday’s election.
Winning this district, home to Nebraska’s largest city Omaha, could be crucial to either campaign’s path to 270 electoral votes.
Last week, Harris’ running mate Tim Walz spoke to a crowd of supporters in Papillion, Nebraska, a suburb of Omaha, highlighting the importance of the 2nd District.
“One dot makes the difference,” he said, referring to a scenario in which Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin – but loses Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
In those circumstances, a victory in the 2nd District in Nebraska would, in that case, deliver Harris her crucial 270th electoral vote.
The incumbent, Rep. Don Bacon, is one of the few vocally anti-Trump Republicans still in office.
He faces Democratic challenger Tony Vargas is a race likely to see high voter turnout.
NEW YORK’S 4TH DISTRICT
One of the wealthiest districts in the US, New York’s 4th Congressional District covers central and southern Nassau County on Long Island.
Incumbent Anthony D’Esposito, a Republican, faces Democrat Laura Gillen in what is set to be a highly competitive race.
D’Esposito has faced several scandals after he was found to have given a government job to a woman he was having an affair with, as well as another job to the daughter of his fiancee.
The former NYPD detective could feel the fallout from controversial comments made about Puerto Rico at last month’s Trump rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden.
His district includes around 10,000 Puerto Rican voters – roughly the margin that he beat his opponent by in 2022.
NEW YORK’S 17TH DISTRICT
New York’s 17th Congressional District, in the south of the state, is one of the seats the Democrats are desperate to take around New York City.
Won by Biden in 2020, it is currently held by Republican Mike Lawler.
His fight against his Democrat opponent Mondaire Jones has been marred by accusations of lies and radicalism.
Both have sought to portray themselves as the moderate candidate.
Lawler has painted Jones as a progressive with ties to the “Squad,” an informal term for a group of progressive Democrat congresspeople, including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
For his part, Jones has claimed Lawler will not “stand up to Donald Trump.”
Earlier this month, The New York Times published a photo of Lawler in blackface as part of a Michael Jackson Halloween costume in 2006.
The Congressman has apologized.
Democrats are worried about a potential third-party spoiler in this bruising contest.
Jones lost the Working Families Party primary over the summer to a former registered Republican.
TEXAS’ 15TH DISTRICT
Redistricting in Texas’ 15th have made this District, in the south of the state on the Mexican border, more likely to vote Trump.
The border is a big issue, and one that Republican incumbent Monica de la Cruz is looking to use to secure her victory.
But Democrats believe that, under Michelle Vallejo, they have a candidate with the rare opportunity to pick up a Texas seat for the party.
Vallejo has stepped up the rhetoric on border security, presenting herself as the candidate of law and order.
“Our community is being overwhelmed by the chaos at the border, and it’s time to get serious,” she said in a recent Democrat political ad.
She promised “thousands of new border patrol agents,” if elected, and vowed to “take on the cartels and human trafficking,” in a stark contrast with Harris’ perceived status as “border czar.”
The most recent polling shows de la Cruz holding a narrow lead of just three percentage points going into election day.
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TEXAS’ 34TH DISTRICT
Texas’ 34th Congressional District, covering the southern Gulf Coast, is another area on a knife edge.
With a majority Hispanic population, the race between incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez and Republican Mayra Flores has become highly racially charged.
Flores, who previously held the seat before losing it in 2022, accused her opponent of being soft on border security.
She also shrugged off concerns raised by Gonzalez about a border bill which would have required many South Texans to carry passports to prove their citizenship.
If the Republicans manage to take this seat, it will be a major sign of the surprising inroads the party has made with Hispanic voters under Donald Trump.
WASHINGTON’S 3RD DISTRICT
Washington’s 3rd District, covering much of the southwestern portion of the state, is seen as a bellwether district.
Forecasters say the race between incumbent Democrat Marie Glusenkamp Perez and Republican Joe Kent is a “toss-up.”
Kent, a former Green Beret who Donald Trump has endorsed, has sparked controversy after comparing abortion to slavery.
Recently, Trump called in to a telephone rally in support of Kent, recalling meeting him in 2019 after his wife, Navy cryptologist Shannon Kent, was killed in a terrorist attack in Syria.
Trump praised Kent as “a real fighter, a real hero,” who would “help me with stopping the terrible migrant crime that is pouring into our neighborhoods.”
The race has drawn more than $30 million of funding and national attention.
For her part, Glusenkamp Perez has distanced herself from Harris and from Washington politics.
She says she regularly attends Bible study with GOP lawmakers “because I need more Jesus, not because I need more politics.”
She also cracked a joke about growing up in small-town America, telling supporters, “My mom is from Forks, Washington, which people in DC think is something to the left of your dinner plate.”
Allan Lichtman’s 2024 presidential election prediction
Renowned historian Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since 1984 using his 13 Keys to the White House algorithm. In 2016, he was one of the few scholars who correctly predicted a Trump win. This year, has revealed who he thinks will be inaugurated as the 47th president in January next year based on his system of true and false statements.
If six or more statements go against the White House party, they are projected to lose the presidential election.
Midterm elections: The Democrats suffered losses in the 2022 House elections, meaning the key turns false. (Harris 0-1 Trump)
There is no primary contest: This key turns in favor of Harris because the Democrats got “smart” and rallied behind the vice president after Joe Biden ended his campaign, according to Lichtman. (Harris 1-1 Trump)
The sitting president is seeking another term: This turns false because Biden suspended his re-election campaign. (Harris 1-2 Trump)
There is no third-party challenger: This statement is true because third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. needed to poll at 10% nationally, according to Lichtman. (Harris 2-2 Trump)
The short-term economy is strong: This key goes in favor of the White House Party. (Harris 3-2 Trump)
The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms: This key also swings toward Harris. (Harris 4-2 Trump)
The White House Party has made major national policy changes: This key is also true, according to Lichtman’s theory. (Harris 5-2 Trump)
There is sustained social unrest during the term: College campus demonstrations have erupted in reaction to the Gaza conflict, but no protests have broken out that threaten the fabric of society. This means the key goes in Harris’ column. (Harris 6-2 Trump)
The White House is untainted by scandal: Despite House Republican efforts to impeach Joe Biden, they have been unable to pin a scandal on him. (Harris 7-2 Trump)
The incumbent is charismatic: Harris is not considered a Ronald Reagan or Franklin D. Roosevelt-like figure so the key is false. (Harris 7-3 Trump)
The challenger is uncharismatic: This key goes in favor of the White House party – even though Trump is a showman. (Harris 8-3 Trump)
Lichtman warned that the two foreign policy keys – whether there has been a major success or no failure – could flip either way.
But, even if both statements flipped against Harris, Trump would not have enough keys in his column to win the election.
WISCONSIN’S 3RD DISTRICT
Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District could tell us a lot about the direction of travel in this crucial swing state.
Another toss-up race, if Democrat Rebecca Cooke succeeds in unseating Republican Derrick Van Orden, it could be a sign the state is turning blue.
Van Orden, who has been endorsed by Trump, has had a couple of prominent anger issues in recent months.
In two separate incidents, he swore at a group of teenagers and members of Congress.
He also attended Trump’s Stop the Steal rally on January 6, 2021, hours before Trump supporters stormed the Capitol.
Van Orden has referred to his opponent as “Rebecca Crook” online, accusing her of lying about being a political outsider.
It was revealed by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Cooke previously worked as finance director for four Democratic congressional races, and has a Democratic political and fundraising consulting firm registered in her name.
