Nate Silver, the statistician and founder of polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, issued good news for Vice President Kamala Harris on an episode of his podcast, Risky Business, with Maria Konnikova.
Silver said that “In contrast to this Labor Day period, where she was getting a lot of mediocre data from The New York Times, this is now back on track for basically a tossup election.”
Silver’s election model combines polling data with simulations to predict election outcomes. His approach adjusts poll weightings based on recency, sample size, and the historical accuracy of each pollster.
For a presidential race, Silver runs millions of simulations using state-by-state polling data, accounting for the inherent uncertainty and variability in the polls. The result is a probabilistic forecast, such as predicting that a candidate has a 70 percent chance of winning if they come out ahead in 70 percent of those simulations.
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“Before the debate, Harris was ahead by about two percentage points. Now, she appears to be ahead by about three percentage points. And there has been quite a bit of high-quality data at the national level,” Silver said.
“Why is the number important? Well, the Electoral College bias according to our forecast, the Silver Bulletin forecast, favors Trump by about two and a half points.”
“If Harris wins the popular vote by about two and a half points or more, she’s a favorite in the Electoral College, if she wins by less than two and a half points, she probably doesn’t get over the finish line in states like Pennsylvania.”
“This is a good development for her,” Silver said, and his co-host, Konnikova agreed, stating “It’s good news for Harris.”
Critics argue that the Electoral College has a bias toward the Republican party, which they say arises from the way electoral votes are distributed among states, which give smaller more rural states – many of which tend to vote Republican – disproportionate influence.
Each state gets a number of electors equal to its total representation in Congress, meaning that states with smaller populations still get at least three electoral votes, regardless of size.
Electoral College proponents say this voting model balances power between populous and less populous states, ensuring smaller states have a voice in presidential elections. It promotes a federalist system by preventing dominance of large urban areas and encouraging candidates to address diverse regional concerns.
In recent elections, such as in 2016 and 2020, the popular vote and Electoral College outcomes diverged.
On Wednesday, Silver said that Harris had a good day in the polls, with his averages showing the vice president is leading former President Donald Trump by 3.1 percentage points nationwide (49.1 percent to 46 percent).
Though Silver has predicted for weeks that Trump has a high chance of victory, Harris has begun to make gains in key battleground states, which is boosting her probability of securing the 270 electoral votes she needs in November.
But Silver emphasized that the race is still tight. “Earlier this month, Harris was getting some pretty mediocre numbers in state polls,” Silver said.
“If those state polls also improve for her by a point or two, then we might be at a point where the race leans slightly toward her. If they don’t, we might go back to saying the race leans slightly toward Trump.”
“You can’t look at these national polls and feel too complacent if you’re a Democrat,” Silver said.
Newsweek has reached out to Nate Silver via email for comment.
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