MLB Wild Card Player Props: Best Picks for Mets-Brewers Decisive Game 3

If the past two days are any indication, then the Mets are going to get to the starting pitcher early. This already happened in both Game 1 and Game 2, when the Brewers starters were pulled after giving up three runs before the fifth.

Myers was not horrible in 2024 for the Brewers, but he does not have elite stuff either. He had a decent ERA of 3.00 this season, but that seemed to be due to some luck, so some negative regression is to be expected.

Here were some of his advanced stats on the season:

• Expected ERA: 4.11
• FIP: 3.91
• Expected FIP: 3.97
• SIERA: 3.99

FIP measures what a pitcher’s ERA would be if he just had average fielding behind him, while SIERA is another metric to calculate a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts and the quality of batted balls allowed.

Either way, all of these stats show that Myers should have an ERA closer to 4.00.

Even if Myers does pitch well in his start, he is still unlikely to make it past five innings. In his last start of the regular season, Myers went up against these Mets, pitched a gem, and was still taken out early.

He went five innings despite not giving up a run and only allowing one hit, and N.Y. nevertheless did not let him pitch into the sixth inning. He was taken out with 56 pitches thrown.

Looking at the regular season, Myers went under this 4.5 strikeout number in six of his 15 starts where he pitched five or fewer innings.

Lastly, it is not as though Myers has elite strikeout stuff, either. His K-rate on the year was 22.3 percent, which is below-average. For context, that 22.3 strikeout rate ranked 33rd of all qualified pitchers in the regular season.

There is just not a high ceiling on Myers’ strikeout prop today, which is why the under is the play.

Tobias Myers under 4.5 strikeouts (-130): 1 Unit

William Contreras o1.5 Bases (+155) Bet365

The home run bets have not been kind to start these playoffs, so the pivot is going to be to the total bases markets. While these are not quite as tempting as home run odds, of course, we are at least still getting a plus price.

The box score shows that Contreras only went 1-for-4 at the plate yesterday, which is only one base. But, with that said, he led the game with three HardHits, all three of which were above 100 mph exit velocity.

He had two of the top four hardest hits of the game, but just did not quite have the launch angle to lift these into the air. Still, having a batter hit the ball hard is a good sign.

Here were the three HardHits yesterday:

• 110.1 mph exit velocity, groundout
• 107.7 mph exit velocity, single
• 101.7 mph exit velocity, double-play

Two ground-outs and a single is a tough showing for how hard he hit the ball, but that is not necessarily something that will happen on a consistent basis.

In the regular season, Contreras had a 29 percent fly-ball rate and 16.6 percent line-drive rate, but in the postseason, those numbers have gone down to a 16.7 percent fly-ball rate and a 0.00 percent line-drive rate. His ground ball rate is an absurd 83.3 percent.

A two-game sample size is always going to have wonky numbers, but it is unlikely that he continues to put the ball into the ground as often as he has, and backing a batter that is consistently hitting at a 100 mph-plus exit velocity is generally a good bet to make.

Jose Quintana is pitching for the Mets, and Contreras has had success against him in the past, batting 3-for-9 against Quintana in the past three years.

Of those three hits, one was a home run and another was a double, so let’s hope he does something similar tonight for us.

William Contreras over 1.5 bases (+155): 0.50 Units

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