Minnesota Vikings 2024 Futures Odds: Can Vikes Rebound in Tough NFC North?

Minnesota has a number of questions to answer entering the 2024 season.

With questions at QB, top offensive threat Justin Jefferson coming off a major injury and a defense that will be without DE Danielle Hunter, the Vikings are massive longshots (+1000 at both FanDuel and DraftKings) to win the NFC North.

The biggest reason oddsmakers doubt this team is the move it made at QB this offseason. Replacing Kirk Cousins, who led this offense from 2018-23, with either rookie J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold will amost certainly bring a downgrade under center.

And on defense, Minnesota didn’t stand pat as 2023 sack leaders Hunter and D.J. Wonnum left for Houston and Carolina, respectively. The Vikes signed former Texan Jonathan Greenard and drafted Alabama LB Dallas Turner in the first round, but the front seven looks much less imposing heading into 2024.

Minnesota Vikings 2024 Futures Odds

Oddsmakers expect the Vikings to remain stuck at around seven wins this season. Last year’s squad started off 6-4 before skidding to a 1-6 finish after Cousins tore his Achilles midway through the season.

Minnesota would need a surprising season from either Darnold or McCarthy to reach the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings 2024 Betting Outlook

Will Minnesota’s talent at receiver, running back be enough?

Darnold is expected to begin this season as the starter, but McCarthy will likely take over at some point. In a division other than the NFC North, the Vikings might have a chance to go .500 or better, as whoever starts at QB will have the benefit of a talented supporting cast, especially if Jefferson is healthy. The fifth-year former LSU Tiger is among the top pass-catchers in the league.

Between Jefferson, two-time Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson, second-year WR Jordan Addison (who was outstanding as a rookie, with 70 catches for 911 yards and 10 TDs) and former Packers RB Aaron Jones in the backfield, this will be a potent offense as long as it can get competent QB play from Darnold/McCarthy.

The caveat regarding Minnesota’s talent at the skill positions is that Jefferson (nine starts in 2023), Hockenson (11 starts) and Jones (11 starts) all missed significant time a year ago. If those three are all healthy, Minnesota could have a high-scoring offense. That’s a big if, though, with Jefferson coming back from a hamstring injury and Hockenson recovering from a torn ACL.

The good news is that the 29-year-old Jones, who missed Weeks 11-13 for Green Bay last year, finished the season playing as well as he has in his career.

He gained over 100 yards rushing in each of the Packers’ last five games a year ago, including two playoff games. His 102 carries for 584 yards (5.7 yards per carry) over that stretch were a great sign that he has a lot left in the tank entering his age-30 season.

Can coordinator Brian Flores shore up the defense?

Losing the top two pass-rushers (Hunter and Wonnum) from a unit that got to the quarterback just 43 times in 2023 doesn’t bode well for the Vikings’ D this season.

Flores’ impressive track record, as both a defensive assistant with the Patriots and as head coach of the Dolphins from 2019-2021, means Minnesota should be competent defensively. Still, it’s hard to see this group being better than average, barring a Defensive Rookie of the Year-type season from Turner.

The issues in the secondary, which struggled in 2023 — particularly down the stretch — do not appear to have been solved this offseason.

CB Mekhi Blackmon suffered a torn ACL early in training camp, and fellow corner Shaquill Griffin, who signed with Minnesota as a free agent this offseason, is currently dealing with a hamstring injury.

Outside of 35-year-old safety Harrison Smith, a six-time Pro Bowler with 175 career starts, there are few proven commodities among Minnesota’s DBs.

Minnesota Vikings 2024 Best Bets

Win Total: Under 6.5 (+130) DraftKings

The Vikings could be solid offensively, but they’d need the best year of Darnold’s career for that to happen.

If it’s Darnold, who has thrown 56 interceptions in as many starts in his six years in the league, leading the way, this offense will struggle to find consistency.

And even those who expect McCarthy to be good long-term are not expecting much from him as a rookie following his college career at Michigan. The No. 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft showed flashes in Ann Arbor, but mostly served as a game manager for the Wolverines.

It all seemingly adds up to a losing season for Minnesota, especially with a schedule featuring six games against tough division opponents Detroit, Green Bay and Chicago.

A seven-win season by Minnesota shouldn’t shock anyone, but the price on the Vikings going under 6.5 (+130 at DK) justifies this play.

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