Vladimir Putin’s troops are continuing to strike back against Ukraine’s forces in Kursk as maps show how Russia’s operation to recapture seized territory two-and-a-half months into Kyiv’s incursion has developed over the last week.
The U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Sunday that geolocated footage indicated Ukrainian advances north of Sudzha, the town that had been captured by Kyiv soon after it breached the lightly defended Russian border on August 6.
Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Kursk operation had been a “success,” although it has coincided with Russian gains in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
Kyiv has claimed to have seized around 500 square miles of territory, but Newsweek has yet to verify this. While Russia’s response was considered tardy, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi said Moscow had deployed 50,000 troops to the region, weakening its operations in Ukraine’s east. Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment.
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Institute for the Study of War
Maps released by the Washington, D.C.-based think tank have shown the change in the Kursk region over a week, with one graphic from October 20 illustrating growing advances by Russian forces that have been claimed, compared to October 13.
Attacks have focused on Sudzha and the surrounding area as well as toward Korenevo to the northwest where Moscow has advanced and retaken territory previously held by Ukraine.
The earlier map shows claims by a Russian source that Moscow’s troops had seized Lyubimovka although a later one did showed Ukrainian forces had advanced along the P-200 highway east of Cherkasskoye.
The Ukrainian Telegram channel DeepState released its latest map, which also showed Russian advances in Kursk. The outlet posted drone footage it said showed how nine troops from Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade who were trying to evacuate their comrades there fought off Russian snipers who had surrounded them.
Finland-based military analyst Emil Kastehelmi told Newsweek that Russian troops likely outnumber Ukrainian troops, meaning that Kyiv “can’t continue effective offensive operations, which would aim at expanding the area of control quickly.
“At its largest, Ukraine controlled an area of approximately 1,200 square kilometers [463 square miles]. At the moment, it controls about 700 square kilometers [270 square miles], which means that the Russians have succeeded in their counterattacks quite well,” Kastehelmi said.
While Russian has had to transfer troops to Kursk, “Ukraine would probably need the forces tied to the Kursk operation in other directions, even more than Russia would need its own,” Kastehelmi added.
Meanwhile, Syrskyi posted on Telegram he had visited Ukrainian troops in Kursk, as well as units operating in Ukraine’s neighboring Sumy region, saying that he listened to the brigade commanders and their proposals “and assisted in resolving problematic issues.”
