Ukraine’s troops are making marginal advances in its incursion into Kursk, according to the Institute for the Study of War whose latest map shows the developing situation in Kyiv’s surprise push into Russian territory.
It comes as Russian military bloggers speculate that Ukraine may be preparing for another offensive in the south of the country amid uncertainty about Kyiv’s long-term plans for its unprecedented foray into Russia in its third week.
Meanwhile, caught unawares by Ukraine’s incursion launched on August 6, the Biden administration is looking at whether to help Kyiv’s forces hold or even expand the territory they now occupy in Kursk, The Washington Post reported.
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The Washington D.C.-based think tank said on Friday that Ukraine’s forces continued incremental gains east and north of the border town of Sudzha. The ISW’s latest map of the region indicates how a Russian source had claimed Ukraine had advanced along the P-200 highway north of Martynovka and that geolocated footage showed advances in Russkaya Konopelka.
Satellite maps from the OSINT analysis outlet Frontelligence Insight showed that in response to Kyiv’s push, Russian forces are continuing to build a defensive line in the Kursk region, south and southwest of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov, whose location amid hostilities has sparked international concern.
Geospatial analysis from Frontelligence Insight reveals that Russian forces continue to build a defensive line in the Kursk region, located south and southwest of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov
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“While fortifications can be a serious obstacle, their effectiveness depends on whether experienced veterans or undertrained conscripts man them,” Frontelligence Insight posted on X.
As uncertainty mounts over Ukraine’s goals with the operation and what it will do next, Russian military bloggers have been speculating that Kyiv is considering an offensive in the Zaporizhzhia direction on the southern front.
The pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Rybar said that the Ukrainian command has been forming a strike force and saturating the units deployed there with fire support assets, including drones.
“One of the most likely scenarios is an enemy offensive in the vicinity of Kam’yans’ke,” it said in a post in English on its X channel, suggesting that the goal would be to recapture Tokmak “with a further attempt to cut the land road to Crimea, and Enerhodar with the subsequent seizure of the Zaporizhzhia NPP.”
The post said that “several signs, both direct and indirect, point to the enemy’s plans,” citing satellite reconnaissance filming potential air defense position areas and headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces.
Institute for the Study of War
Another milblogger, NGP Razvedka, said that Ukraine was concentrating forces in the Odesa region and the settlement of Ochakiv “with the aim of attacking the Kinburn and Tendrovskaya spits” in the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions.
In sharing the post, the X account War is Translated wrote that “while these conversations have been going on for several days on Russian channels, the paranoia is likely influenced by the invasion of Kursk.”
Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment on the claims that have not been independently verified.
The shape of Ukraine’s push into Russia and its impact on the rest of the front line have left Kyiv’s allies scrambling to assess its assistance for an operation in which it appears they had no prior knowledge.
The Washington Post said that the Pentagon has asked Kyiv what it needs to make the gambit work amid the uncertainty of its overall offensive strategy, dependence on U.S. weaponry, and concerns of direct U.S. and NATO escalation with Russia.
“They may have a plan, but they’re not sharing it with us,” an unnamed U.S. official told the newspaper.
