A new poll suggests Vice President Kamala Harris may be losing her edge over former President Donald Trump in this year’s election, with Jason Miller, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, saying on Sunday that “the honeymoon is officially over.”
The new survey, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from September 3 to 6, shows Trump leading Harris by a razor-thin margin of 48 to 47 percent among likely voters. The poll, which surveyed 1,695 voters nationwide, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
The poll results, released Sunday, have sent ripples through both campaigns. For the vice president’s campaign, which has enjoyed a surge of momentum since taking over the Democratic nomination from President Joe Biden in late July, the numbers represent a sobering reality check.
“The honeymoon is officially over,” Miller said in a statement to Politico’s Playbook. “Kamala Harris has been exposed as a Radical Left individual who owns the destruction of our economy and our border.”
Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung echoed this sentiment in a statement to Newsweek on Sunday afternoon, saying, “Polling shows President Trump is dominating both nationally and in the battleground states because voters want a return to pro-America policies that actually work, not the weak, failed, and dangerously liberal policies of Comrade Kamala.”
Newsweek has contacted Miller and Harris’ campaign via email on Sunday for comment.
The survey paints a complex picture of voter sentiment just weeks before the November election. While Harris maintains strong support on issues such as democracy protection and abortion rights, Trump holds significant advantages on the economy and immigration.
The Times/Siena poll, ranked as the most accurate pollster by FiveThirtyEight, comes at a crucial juncture in the campaign, with both candidates preparing for their first head-to-head debate on Tuesday night in Philadelphia. The televised encounter could prove pivotal in shaping voter perceptions, especially given that 28 percent of likely voters say they need to know more about Harris, compared to only 9 percent for Trump, according to a recent CBS News/YouGov poll.
AFP / Getty Images/ELIJAH NOUVELAGE
Despite Sunday’s poll’s results, other national polling averages still show Harris with a narrow lead. The Times’ own average has Harris ahead by 2 points, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris leading Trump by 3.1 points. However, as demonstrated in previous elections, the race will likely be decided in key battleground states.
A CBS News/YouGov survey conducted between September 3 to 6 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin underscores the tight race in these crucial swing states. In Michigan, Harris leads Trump by a single point (50 to 49 percent) among likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.7 points. The results are based on representative samples of 1,086 registered voters in Michigan, 1,085 in Pennsylvania, and 958 in Wisconsin.
The CBS News/YouGov poll reveals several factors contributing to the close race. Trump leads 53 percent to Harris’ 27 percent among voters who feel they’re not better off financially since the COVID-19 pandemic and those whose incomes aren’t keeping up with inflation. He also has an advantage with non-college and white working-class voters.
Harris holds her own in some key areas. She’s seen as slightly better at looking out for middle-class interests and is perceived as having more mainstream positions compared to Trump’s, which many voters describe as “extreme.” On the issue of middle-class interests, the vice president polled 57 percent in Michigan, 53 percent in Pennsylvania, 55 percent in Wisconsin, and also has an edge on issues like affordable housing and is viewed as having the cognitive and mental health to serve—a reversal from when Biden was the nominee. Trump polled 50 percent in Michigan, 50 percent in Pennsylvania, and 55 percent in Wisconsin when it comes to middle-class interests.
The impact of campaign rhetoric and social media is mixed. While a staggering 71 percent of voters find Trump’s comments and social media posts insulting towards Harris, a quarter of those voters still support him. Conversely, most Trump voters see Harris’ comments about him as insulting.
Notably, Harris appears to have an advantage in voter enthusiasm, with 89 percent of Democrats reported being more excited about her campaign than 78 percent of Republicans in Michigan are about Trump’s. Additionally, the CBS News/YouGov poll shows 94 percent of Wisconsin Democrats are now just as likely as 92 percent of Republicans in the same state to say they will definitely vote, potentially neutralizing the traditional Republican turnout advantage.
