Vice President Kamala Harris has received encouraging news about her chances in a state that President Joe Biden lost during the last presidential election.
The Cook Political Report announced Tuesday that it was shifting North Carolina, which former President Donald Trump won in 2020 by roughly 1.3 percent, from “leans Republican” to a “toss-up” state in its latest 2024 election forecast.
The last Democrat to win North Carolina in a presidential election was former President Barack Obama, who carried the state with a margin of around 14,000 votes in 2008. His narrow win was the first Democratic victory since former President Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote in an analysis of this year’s race that the forecast had not shifted toward Harris due to Trump losing ground in North Carolina, but instead because “Harris has improved on Biden’s vote share by seven points.”
Grant Baldwin
“In other words, the race is tightening, not because Harris is cutting into Trump’s vote, but because Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are coming home,” Walter wrote.
An average of recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows that the race in North Carolina is a dead heat, with Trump leading Harris by a tiny margin of 0.2 points as of Tuesday evening.
Just before Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris on July 21, the FiveThirtyEight average showed Trump with a commanding 6.9 percent lead over the Democratic ticket in North Carolina.
In a possible sign that Republicans are concerned about vulnerability in North Carolina, Trump has been increasingly spending time in the state since Harris became his opponent, holding three separate rallies in the Tar Heel State from July 24 to August 21.
Harris has only visited North Carolina once since taking her place at the top of the Democratic ticket, although a planned rally with running mate Tim Walz was canceled due to weather conditions and further campaigning in the state is likely.
North Carolina State University political science professor Steven Greene said in an email to Newsweek that although “Harris can almost certainly win the presidency while losing” in North Carolina, “it would be very unlikely for Trump to do so.”
Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, previously told Newsweek via email that “the data shows that North Carolina continues to be a competitive state for the Presidential Election” and will “likely be close in November” despite the state still having a “Republican lean.”
Newsweek reached out for comment to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email on Tuesday night.
Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved North Carolina from the “leans Republican” category to a “toss-up” last week, while noting that it was the first time it had moved a “leans Republican” state towards Democrats during the 2024 election cycle.
The Cook Political Report also moved Minnesota and New Hampshire from the “lean Democrat” category to “likely Democrat” in the presidential election on Tuesday.
Walter attributed the further shift towards Harris in blue-leaning states to the vice president being “able to reconstitute and energize the Democratic coalition” and putting the states “out of reach for the Trump campaign.”
