Former President Donald Trump is polling stronger than he was at this point in the 2016 and 2020 elections, but the race against Vice President Kamala Harris remains close, according to recent polling averages.
The 2024 presidential campaign is entering its final few weeks, with polls showing Trump and Harris separated by narrow margins in battleground states. In 2016 and 2020, polls suggested former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden respectively held stronger leads over Trump than Harris at the same point in those elections.
Real Clear Politics (RCP) on Tuesday gave Harris a 1.4 point lead over Trump nationally, with swing states being even closer or breaking in favor of the former president.
The average is Trump’s strongest RCP average in mid-October. The pollster gave Biden a 9.4 point lead and Clinton a 6.7 point lead.
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Polls were several points off, skewing more toward Democrats than the eventual results, in both elections. Clinton won the popular vote by about two points in 2016, losing the Electoral College, while Biden won the popular vote by about 4.5 points in 2020 and coasted in securing electoral votes, 306-232.
Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, told Newsweek that the race may appear closer this year due to ever-changing methodologies, a historically tight race and improvements to aggregation.
“Let’s also not forget what 2016 and 2020 looked like—incredibly close races in the end that, while a winner may have seemed evident, a standard-sized polling error could—and did, in 2016—upend what polls were saying prior to Election Day,” she said.
“Polling from these past election cycles got swept up in a narrative that a Democratic win was certain instead of recognizing the inherent uncertainty that statistical estimates from polls present and that a few point lead—even if consistent—does not guarantee a win,” Koning added.
If there is a similar polling error as 2016 or 2020, that could point to a Trump victory next month.
“Let’s say we have a polling error like we had in 2020. What happens then? Well then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in—Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia,” CNN data reporter Harry Enten said this month.
Pollsters have warned that an error may be replicated in November. Just because polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, that does not necessarily mean they will do so in November, as pollsters adjust their methodologies after elections to work toward more accurate results.
Pollsters have moved away from the “traditional gold standard” of phone surveys and now use text messages and panels, Koning said. Pollsters also began including education in their weighting after 2016.
“A key problem in all of these election cycles has been the “quality” of Republican voters as opposed to the “quantity”—in other words, making sure Trump supporters are responding. Some pollsters have changed questionnaire designs and question wording to capture this, while others—for better or worse, have been weighting to past vote and/or partisanship this election cycle,” she said.
Some pollsters are now using past vote history as one way to correct the undercount from the past few presidential races.
In a statement to Newsweek, Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly touted Trump’s polling.
“Even after the Democrats have spent over $200 million trying to redefine Kamala Harris, President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground because his message is resonating with voters across the country,” she said.
Newsweek also reached out to Harris’ campaign for comment via email.
Democrats and Republicans agree the race is close, and both candidates are spending the final weeks of the campaign traversing battleground states in hopes of building momentum and urging their supporters to vote. Maximizing turnout over the next few weeks will be crucial for either candidate’s victory, regardless of polls.
But polls don’t always undercount Republicans. In 2012, they did the opposite. RCP showed Mitt Romney up 0.7 points over then-President Barack Obama, but Obama ended up winning by 3.9 points.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average was slightly stronger for Harris. It showed her leading Trump by 2.4 points. But in 2020, Biden led the polling average by 10.5 points on October 15. Clinton led by six points on the same day in 2016.
Recent polls have also been a bit better for Trump than earlier in the fall but still not as strong as after his debate against Biden in July. Trump overtook Biden in the polls after the debate fueled concerns about the president’s age, eventually resulting in his withdrawal from the race. Harris rebounded after becoming the Democratic nominee, but the race is still viewed as a toss-up.
How Swing State Polling Averages Compare to 2020, 2016
RCP’s polling average on Tuesday showed Trump ahead 1.1 points in Arizona, while Biden led by 3.5 points and Trump by 0.7 points in 2020 and 2016 respectively. In Nevada, Trump led Harris by only 0.2 points, compared to Biden’s 5.2 point lead in 2020 and Clinton’s 1.6 point lead in 2016.
In Georgia, Trump led Harris by an average of 0.6 points on Tuesday, compared to Biden’s 1.2 lead in 2020 and Trump’s 5.3 point lead in 2016. Trump is ahead 0.6 points in North Carolina, according to RCP. Biden led Trump by 2.8 points in 2020, while Clinton led him by 3.3 points in 2016 in the Tar Heel State.
Trump held a 0.9 point lead in RCP’s Michigan average on Tuesday. Biden led by 7.2 points in 2020, and Clinton led by 11.4 points in 2016 at this point. Trump led Harris in Pennsylvania by 0.3 points, compared to Biden’s 6.4 point lead in 2020 and Clinton’s 8.2 point lead in 2016.
Harris led Trump by 0.3 points in Wisconsin. In 2020, Biden led Trump by 6.3 points, while Clinton led Trump by 6 points in the state in 2016.
