A new tropical storm may be brewing in the Caribbean in the wake of Hurricane Milton’s dramatic intensification earlier this month.
The potential new storm is an area of low pressure off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama, but it may strengthen to a tropical depression or even a tropical storm as it moves across the ocean.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that the low has a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 20 percent chance in the next seven days.
“Tropical cyclone is the general type of storm. A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone with max winds of 38 mph or less. A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone with max winds of 39-73 mph. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with max winds of 74 mph or higher,” Mathew Barlow, a professor of environmental, earth and atmospheric sciences at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, told Newsweek.
National Hurricane Center NHC
This potential tropical cyclone is not likely to pose a threat to the U.S., as current forecasts predict it will turn to the northwest, skirt around Nicaragua and Honduras and head toward the coasts of Belize and Guatemala.
“Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual development is possible if the system stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week,” the NHC said.
Another possible storm appears to be building in the central Atlantic, which may have a greater chance of reaching tropical-storm strength.
8 PM EDT Tue Oct 15: NHC is monitoring 2 areas for potential development. #AL94 has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression as it passes near the NE Caribbean islands late this week. A disturbance in the SW #Caribbean has a low chance of formation but could bring heavy… pic.twitter.com/TG8r1lOx98
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 15, 2024
“A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development during the latter part of this week,” the NHC said. “A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week.”
The NHC estimated that the system had a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 50 percent chance of hitting tropical-cyclone strength over the next seven days.
This storm’s current forecast path shows it may be heading toward Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, though this may change in the coming days.
If either system hits tropical-storm strength, it will be named. Nadine and Oscar are the next available names for storms in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
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