As Tropical Storm Rafael barrels across the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center predicts that powerful winds might impact the U.S. by Thursday night.
The storm, which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane late Tuesday evening, is currently just south of Jamaica, and is moving northwest in the direction of the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
After making landfall in Cuba, the storm is expected to sideswipe the Florida Keys and slam into Louisiana at the weekend, though the forecast this far out is still unclear.
“Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba,” the NHC said in a public advisory.
National Hurricane Center NHC
NHC maps of most likely tropical storm-force wind arrival times show that Rafael will reach the Cayman Islands around 2 p.m. local time on Tuesday, make landfall in Cuba as a hurricane by around 8 a.m. Wednesday morning, and hit the Florida Keys sometime on Wednesday afternoon or evening.
“Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands by tonight where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday,” the NHC said in a forecast discussion.
“Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night.”
Rafael will then carry on across the Gulf of Mexico in the direction of Louisiana’s and Mississippi’s Gulf Coasts, potentially making landfall on Saturday, though exactly how strong the storm will be at this point is still unknown.
“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said.
Hurricane warnings are in place for the Cayman Islands and several western provinces of Cuba, while tropical storm warnings have been issued for Jamaica and other Cuban provinces.
The Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and Dry Tortugas are currently under a tropical storm watch, which means that tropical storm conditions—with winds of between 39 mph and 73 mph—are possible within 48 hours.
Rafael is expected to bring with it intense rainfall, with as much as 10 inches being forecast to fall in some areas of Jamaica and Cuba in the coming days. This could spark flash flooding and landslides.
Additionally, Florida and the Southeast are expected to see heavy rainfall, with up to 3 inches forecast for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.
“Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans, along with southern and western portions of Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba,” the NHC explained. “Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week.”
Rafael is also expected to bring between 6 and 9 feet of storm surge to areas of Cuba that will be impacted by the hurricane, as well as up to 3 feet in the Cayman Islands and Dry Tortugas, and up to 2 feet in the Lower Florida Keys.
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