It is the West Coast Conference Title game as we continue our College Basketball odds series with a Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s prediction and pick.
It is the West Coast Conference Title game as Gonzaga faces Saint Mary’s. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
This will be the same conference final game as the last two years, with each of the last two being won by Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s did win the regular season title this year, going 15-1 in conference play. The one loss was in their last game of the season. It was a 70-57 loss to Gonzaga at the end of the year. That broke a long winning streak which included a win over Gonzaga on the road 64-62.
Meanwhile, Gonzaga was 14-2 in conference play. They had their one loss to Saint Mary’s but also fell to Santa Clara on the road by one. Due to the tournament structure, both teams played just one game to get here. Saint Mary’s defeated Santa Clara 79-65 in their first tournament game, while Gonzaga took an 89-77 win over San Francisco to advance to the finals.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
College Basketball Odds: Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s Odds
Gonzaga: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -148
Saint Mary’s: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +124
Over: 139.5 (-110)
Under: 139.5 (-110)
How to Watch Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s
Time: 9:00 PM ET/ 6:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN/ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Gonzaga Will Cover The Spread/Win
Gonzaga is ranked 15th in the nation in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings. They are ranked ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Gonzaga is seventh in the nation in points per game this year, while sitting ninth in effective field goal percentage. Graham Ike leads the way. He comes in with 16.9 points per game this year, while also shooting 62.0 percent from the field. Second on the team is Anton Watson, who is also shooting well. He has 14.2 points per game this year while shooting 59.0 percent. Nolan Hickman rounds out the top scoring options, with 14.0 points per game, while he is shooting 45.9 percent. Further, Ryan Nembhard passes the ball well. He has 6.4 assists per game to go with his 12.8 points per game.
Gonzaga is 35th in the nation in rebounds per game this year while sitting 32nd in offensive rebounding rates, and 21st in total defensive rebounds per game. Ike and Watson lead the way here too. Ike comes in with 7.3 rebounds per game this year. He also has over two offensive rebounds per game. Further, Watson comes in with 7.1 rebounds per game and also has two offensive rebounds per game. Finally, Ben Gregg comes in with 5.6 rebounds per game this year.
Gonzaga ranks 83rd in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting 25th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Anton Watson has been solid here as well, coming in with 1.6 steals per game this year. Meanwhile, Benn Gregg and Ryan Nembhard both have 1.2 steals per game this year. Further, Both Watson and Gregg have .7 blocks per game this year.
Why Saint Mary’s Will Cover The Spread/Win
Saint Mary’s is ranked 22nd in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency. They are 49th in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Saint Mary’s is 158th in the nation in points per game this year, while sitting 76th in effective field goal percentage. They move the ball well though, sitting 33rd in assists per game this year. Aidan Mahaney comes in leading the team in scoring. He comes in with 13.7 points per game this year but is shooting just 38.4 percent from the field. Meanwhile, Augustus Marcilulionis comes in leading the team in assists. He has 12.4 points per game while also having 5.1 assists per game. Mitchell Saxen rounds out the top scoring options, coming in with 11.5 points per game this year, while also shooting 56.0 percent.
Saint Mary’s is 23rd in the nation in rebounds per game this year. They are first in the nation in defensive rebounding rate this year, while sitting sixth in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. Saxen leads the way in rebounding as well. He comes in with 7.3 rebounds per game this year, while over half of those are on the offensive glass. Joshua Jefferson has 6.5 rebounds per game, to go with his 10.2 points per game. Rounding out the top guy on the glass is Alex Ducas. He comes in with 5.7 rebounds per game.
Saint Mary’s is third in the nation in opponent points per game, while also sitting third in opponent effective field goal percentage. Mitchell Sexton plays a role here too. He has 1.4 blocks per game this year while passing .6 steals per game. Meanwhile, Marcilulionis comes in with 1.5 steals per game on the season.
Final Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s Prediction & Pick
Gonzaga is the better team on offense by a lot. They are one of the best offensive teams in the nation. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s is dominant on the glass and great on defense. They have shown though, that if they cannot press out well on Gonzaga, and allow Gonzaga to get their open looks, Gonzaga will make them pay. The first match-up was just a two-point game, while the second was a blowout. Further, recent history shows Gonzaga should win this game. Take the Zags to win the conference title in a higher-scoring game.
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Final Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s Prediction & Pick: Gonzaga ML (-148) and Over 139.5 (-110)
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About the Author
Bryan Logan decided to jump into his passion for Sports Betting in 2022 after spending years in the world of education. With a love for analytics and all sports, he began working on models for daily sports picks. This led him to ClutchPoints in 2023, where he is a part of the betting editorial team.