There’s still a chance a tropical storm or hurricane could impact Florida before the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.
As of Tuesday evening, no named storms were churning in the Atlantic Ocean, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) was monitoring a system with a high risk of development in the Caribbean. Should the storm develop later this week, it will become Tropical Storm Sara, the 18th named storm of the season.
In late October, AccuWeather meteorologists predicted one to three additional named storms during the month of November. So far, two have formed: Tropical Storm Patty and Hurricane Rafael. Both storms mostly avoided the U.S. save for some indirect impacts, but AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that should Tropical Storm Sara form, atmospheric conditions could steer the storm toward south Florida.
“I am getting more concerned we are going to be likely seeing a hurricane in the western Caribbean this weekend, potentially even a powerful one at that,” DaSilva said.
Although it’s still too early for an official track, it’s possible the storm could curve north and then take aim at Florida. If the storm follows that path, DaSilva said it will likely land between November 19 and 22.
National Hurricane Center
Ocean temperatures in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are above average for this time of year, which could contribute to storm development.
DaSilva said a large area of high pressure across the southeast U.S. will be the “main driver” for where the evolving storm will go. If the high pressure strengthens, it will drive the storm west into Yucatan and Mexico, where it will pose little impact on the U.S.
However, DaSilva is concerned that the high pressure will weaken, allowing the storm to turn toward the Florida coast. If that happens, the area with the highest risk impact will be south Florida.
“If it does come up into the U.S., it won’t be at peak intensity, but that’s not to say the impacts couldn’t be significant depending on the strength of the storm,” DaSilva said, adding that strong winds, coastal flooding, and very heavy rainfall would be possible.
As of Tuesday evening, the system in the western Caribbean had a 60 percent chance of strengthening into Sara in the next 48 hours and a 90 percent chance of doing so in the next seven days.
“Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure,” the NHC said about the developing system.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week.”
