Donald Trump’s odds of winning the November presidential election are the best they have been since Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepted the Democratic Party nomination, according to a leading bookmaker.
Betfair is currently offering odds of 4/5 (56 percent) on the Republican candidate winning next month versus 5/4 (43 percent) for Harris. The figure is also the shortest Trump has given by Betfair at this point in an election campaign, compared to 2/1 (33.3 percent) in 2020 and 5/1 (16.7 percent) in 2016.
Polling suggests Trump has gained ground in key swing states over the past few weeks with a recent survey by Quinnipiac University putting the Republican candidate ahead of Harris by 3 points in Michigan, and 2 points in Wisconsin.
A study by polling website 338Canada published on Monday gave Trump a 51 percent chance of winning in November, up from its previous analysis released on October 8 which put him on 47 percent.
Trump’s odds of victory are the shortest they have been with Betfair since 22 August when Harris formally accepted the Democratic presidential nomination, at which point the Republican nominee had odds of 20/21 (51.2 percent).
Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee after President Joe Biden announced he was dropping out of the race on July 21 amid intense focus on the 81-year-old’s age and mental acumen.
Speaking to Newsweek Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom commented: “With three weeks to go until voting day in the U.S., punters [customers] are now heavily backing Donald Trump to win the U.S. election.
“In the last week, his odds have shortened from evens to 4/5, which now gives him a 56 percent chance. While Kamala Harris is out to 5/4, having been the odds-on favorite after the presidential debate last month.”
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Rosbottom continued: “In fact, looking back at Trump’s two previous presidential campaigns, his odds now are the shortest they have ever been at this point with three weeks to go until polling day. In 2016, when he won the election, he was as big as 5/1 at this point in that campaign.
“The Betfair Exchange market has been a rollercoaster ride recently, with the market flipping between Harris and Trump as the favorite eight times since August, but punters seemed to have now settled on the former president.”
Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris presidential election campaigns for comment on Tuesday via email outside of regular office hours.
Last week, The Economist released an election forecast based on “over 10,000 simulations of the election,” which gave Trump an average of 270 Electoral College votes after the election, just enough to secure the presidency. By contrast two weeks earlier the publication had Trump on an average of 257 Electoral College votes, giving Harris the win.
According to the latest analysis of recent surveys by polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, published on October 15, Harris currently has a 2.5 point lead over Trump in national polling with 48.6 percent of the vote against 46.1 percent. However, due to the Electoral College system, Harris could win the popular vote, but still lose the election overall as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
