Former President Donald Trump suffered a polling blow in three critical battleground states, after new data shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed Harris to succeed him on the ticket, polls have changed significantly. Whereas most polling data previously showed Trump leading Biden nationally as well as in battleground states, that has now shifted—with Harris appearing to have an advantage nationally, as well as in some critical states.
Due to the Electoral College system, several battleground states have outsized influence on the presidential election. Candidates can lose the popular vote nationwide and still win by carrying enough states that are not solidly Republican or Democratic. This cycle, if Harris can win all the solidly Democratic states Biden won in 2020 and also secure victories in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she should be able to win the Electoral College.
Polling data published Saturday morning by The New York Times/Siena College, which has been rated as the America’s most accurate pollster by ABC News’ polling analysis site 538, showed Harris leading Trump by 4 percent in all of the three swing states. The Democratic vice president was at 50 percent in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the former Republican president was at 46 percent.
The survey included 619 voters in Michigan, 693 in Pennsylvania and 661 in Wisconsin. Margins of error in each state were plus or minus 4.8, 4.2 and 4.3 percentage points, respectively. The poll was carried out from August 6 to 9.
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When contacted for comment on Saturday morning, the Trump campaign sent Newsweek different polling by Trafalgar Group published on Friday; it showed the former president narrowly leading in the three battleground states, as well as in Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona. Trafalgar Group is described by the analysts 538 as a “partisan” pollster affiliated with the Republican Party.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign via email for comment on Saturday morning.
During a Thursday press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort home in Florida, Trump said that he is “leading by a lot.” He repeatedly disparaged the Harris campaign, calling the vice president “incompetent” and “not smart.” Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, have dubbed Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, as “weird.”
Polling averages by 538 currently show Harris narrowly leading Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Michigan, Harris has 44.9 percent compared to Trump’s 42.9 percent. In Pennsylvania, the vice president is at 45.5 percent and the former president is at 44.6 percent. In Wisconsin, the averages have Harris with 46.2 percent to Trump’s 44.4 percent.
