Donald Trump would benefit from independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out of the election race, according to experts.
State and national polls show that when third party candidates are included, Kennedy Jr. is taking more votes from Trump than Kamala Harris three months ahead of the election.
A Fox News survey of 1,034 Pennsylvania voters conducted between July 22 and 24, showed that 10 percent of his two-way supporters choose someone else when third party candidates are included, while only 7 percent of Harris supporters select a different candidate.
When third party candidates were included, Harris had a 2-point lead over Trump, with 45 percent of the vote to his 43 percent. Meanwhile, Kennedy took 7 percent, with Jill Stein and Cornel West on 1 percent each.
In a two-way race, Harris and Trump were tied on 49 percent each, with a 3 percent margin of error.
“Trump has a real incentive to get Kennedy out of the race,” David B. Cohen, professor of political science at the University of Akron in Ohio told Newsweek.
Meanwhile, in a University of Massachusetts Amherst poll conducted between July 29 and August 1, 29 percent of Kennedy voters said they would vote for Trump in a head-to- head lineup, while only 26 percent of Harris voters said they would.
Newsweek contacted representatives of RFK Jr. via email for comment.
Despite his family’s close ties to the Democratic Party, polls have previously shown that far more Republicans than Democrats have a favorable opinion of RFK Jr., AP reported.
Hans Pennink/AP
However, since Harris entered the race, Kennedy’s share of the vote has declined.
“Before Joe Biden decided to stand down for the presidency, RFK Jr. was polling between 14 to 16 per cent with the American public. He was doing very well. But since Biden has stood down and Kamala Harris has been declared the Democratic Party candidate, we have seen his polling drop by about 10 percent to 4 percent, Mike Tappin, a U.S. expert and honorary fellow at Keele University in the U.K., told Newsweek.
According to Race to the White House’s poll aggregator, Kennedy is now at 5.7 percent. On July 10, before Biden dropped out of the race, he was on 10 percent.
“I think one of the reasons for this is that the electorate didn’t want to see Donald Trump and Biden have a rematch, and RFK Jr. was benefiting from that. We now have a new, younger candidate in Harris and now we’re seeing RFK Jr. suffering since Harris entered the race,” Tappin added.
Because of his declining vote share, Tappin does not think Kennedy will be in the race for much longer, and, he said, there are “already some indications that the Trump campaign
are trying to get RFK Jr. to drop out.”
Newsweek approached Trump’s representatives for comment.
Kennedy and Trump reportedly met at the RNC in Milwaukee last month, with early reports of the encounter stirring speculation that Kennedy was planning to drop out of the race and possibly endorse Trump.
However, a spokesperson for the independent candidate’s campaign muted speculation, telling the New York Times at the time: “Yes, Mr. Kennedy met with President Trump today to discuss national unity, and he hopes to meet with leaders of the Democratic Party as well.
“And no, he is not dropping out of the race,” they added. “He is the only pro-environment, pro-choice, antiwar candidate who beats Donald Trump in head-to-head polls.”
But Tappin said Kennedy could still drop out of the race, especially if Trump offers him a job in his administration.
“I think RFK Jr.’s chances are less than zero and my view is he could be offered a Cabinet position by Trump, to take him out of the race,” he said.
However, professor Cohen thinks that offering Kennedy a job in order to tempt him to drop out is something that could pose a risk to the Trump campaign.
“Any role for Kennedy in a Trump campaign or a future administration besides an endorsement is a risk for Trump,” he told Newsweek.
“Trump will not want Kennedy associated with a campaign desperately trying to run away from the ‘weird’ label in any way, especially since Kennedy is the poster boy of weird,” he added, referencing remarks by Harris and her vice-president nominee Tim Walz in which they referred to Trump and his running mate JD Vance as “weird,” owing to comments Vance had made about childless women.
“From brain worms to placing the carcass of a dead bear cub in Central Park, Kennedy has become a sad joke of a candidate, relegated to meme status. Whether Kennedy will agree to drop out of the race and endorse Trump absent some sort of surrogate campaign role or promise of a job in a future campaign is questionable,” Tappin continued.
Kennedy revealed earlier this year that a worm apparently ate a part of his brain and then died. He also raised eyebrows when a video resurfaced this month in which he admitted it was he who dumped a dead bear cub in Central Park in 2014, solving a decade-old mystery.
He said he found the bear cub’s carcass and did not kill the animal.
Despite disagreeing over what the future might look like for Kennedy under a Trump presidency, Tappin and Cohen do agree on one thing—they claim his days as a presidential candidate are numbered.
“The money he is raising for his campaign has also fallen,” Tappin said, “which suggests to me he won’t be in the race for the presidency in 2024 for much longer.”
Federal Election Commission filings show Kennedy spent nearly $1 million more than he took in last month and that the campaign is also carrying debt of approximately $3 million. Meanwhile, his biggest super PAC, American Values 2024, brought in a modest $228,000 in June, according to the FEC.
“Robert Kennedy Jr. has no chance of winning—that is an absolute certainty.” Cohen added.
