Republican pollster Frank Luntz said on Saturday that former President Donald Trump faces a gender “chasm” when it comes to women voters compared to Vice President Kamala Harris.
In an interview with CNN’s Michael Smerconish on Saturday morning, Luntz was presented with several polls that demonstrated what the host called a “gender gap” between Harris and Trump.
Smerconish showed Luntz a recent national Fox News poll, conducted between August 9 to 12, that showed a 22-point gender gap between Harris and Trump, with the former president plus-12 with men and Harris plus-10 with women.
Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee after he announced he was stepping aside from the race and gave Harris his endorsement on July 21.
Boosted by women and younger voters, Harris is ahead of Trump, the Republican nominee, in five out of seven battleground states, according to new polling averages in the Silver Bulletin.
Addressing the recent polling averages, Luntz said the gap between Harris and Trump with women voters resembled a “chasm.”
“Trump is actively going out of his way and insulting his way…and it’s not a [gender] gap, it’s a chasm. We’ve never seen this before. I actually believe that there are going to be divorces because of the battle between them,” the GOP pollster said.
Newsweek has emailed Harris’ and Trump’s campaigns on Saturday afternoon for comment.
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Luntz said Trump is struggling with women for three reasons, including the former president’s personal attacks against Harris.
“One, don’t insult your opponent on how they look, how they speak, women can’t stand that. Second, they expect you to focus on the future and not anger about the past. And again, that’s the exact opposite of what Trump’s actually doing,” he told Smerconish.
Luntz continued: “Third, the economy has been challenging and inflation has clearly made lives more difficult for so many people. And you want to lean into that and acknowledge it and show people a solution. You want to give them ideas for how they can change it, and that’s what Kamala Harris did yesterday. You may disagree with what she’s saying, but at least she’s addressing it.”
On Friday, the Harris campaign released its first economic policy agenda, focused on lowering costs for American families. Among the ideas floated in the proposal is giving $25,000 to more than a million first-time buyers who have a history of making their rent payments on time.
Combined with a new child-tax credit and other tax incentives, along with the White House’s recent negotiation of Medicare prescription drug prices, the policies amount to a sweeping economic agenda meant to address the one issue that voters consistently say is top of mind: the cost of living.
Meanwhile, Trump said Wednesday that he’s unsure if the economy is the nation’s most important issue during a rally in Asheville, North Carolina.
“Today we are going to talk about one subject,” the former president said 15 minutes into his speech. “They say it’s the most important subject; I’m not sure it is, but they say it’s the most important. Inflation is the most important, but that’s part of the economy.”
Earlier in the speech, Trump said the economy was a very important subject but added that “crime” and “the [southern] border” also topped the list.
On Saturday, Smerconish also showed Luntz polls that showed how women and men were polling nationally versus in the critical swing states.
According to CNN election forecaster Harry Enten, who analyzed a group of key pollsters, Harris is currently plus-seven, nationally, among women in a matchup with Trump. Biden was just plus-4 among women at the time he exited the race. Trump remained plus-9 among men, nationally, according to Enten’s analysis.
Women voters are fueling Kamala Harris’ surge. She is doing 7 pts better among them than Biden did. Meanwhile, no movement among men voters nationally. This patterns holds in the key swing states too.
If those NYT polls are right, we could be looking at a historic gender gap. pic.twitter.com/rnPHkILdYP
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 16, 2024
However, in the critical swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Harris is plus-17 among women against Trump, according to a recent New York Times/Sienna poll. Biden was plus-10 when he left the race. Meanwhile, in the same three states, Trump has lost two percentage points among men, dropping from plus-17 to plus-15.
When asked by Smerconish about the more pronounced gender gap in those states, Luntz said on Saturday, “Noone is seeing the campaign but those three states and four others. The truth is, this is not a nationwide campaign, it’s a campaign to win just seven states. So, they’re going to see all of the ads, particularly the negative ones. They’re going to get all of this intense focus.”
