Former President Donald Trump has lost ground to Vice President Kamala Harris in recent weeks, but he’s still leading on several key issues that will dominate their debate Tuesday.
Trump continues to poll better than Harris on the economy, inflation and immigration, despite seeing his overall lead shrink in national and battleground state polls since Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee.
More Americans trust Trump to handle the economy than Harris, with 46 percent saying they trust Trump more on the issue compared to 38 percent who trust Harris, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sept. 1. Trump also had an 8-point lead over Harris on handling inflation.
The polling suggests Trump’s attacks on the Biden-Harris administration’s economic policies may be resonating with some voters.
At the debate Harris will likely tout the administration’s record of 15 million new jobs created, a low unemployment rate and the fact that inflation is down from its recent peak of 9.1 percent in the summer of 2022. But polls show the economy and inflation remain a top concern for many Americans.
“The evidence is that the labor market is in good shape and inflation is down,” said George Hammond, the director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona. “But people dislike rising prices much more than they like having a [strong] labor market.”
Trump’s numbers on the economy, inflation and immigration — issues at the center of the 2024 election — haven’t changed much over the past month as Trump has pivoted to running against Harris.
Newsweek requested comment from the Trump and Harris campaigns.
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Polls also show voters who prioritize the three issues overwhelmingly back Trump over Harris.
Among U.S. adults who said jobs and the economy were “very important” issues, 86 percent said they planned to vote for Trump, compared to 64 percent who said they intend to vote for Harris, an Economist/YouGov poll taken Aug. 25-27 found.
The polling split between Trump and Harris on immigration is even larger.
Trump led Harris by 51 points among adults who said immigration was “very important” to them in the Economist/YouGov poll, with 83 percent saying they planned to back Trump compared to just 32 percent who said they will vote for Harris.
Trump and Republicans have dubbed Harris the “border czar” and criticized her for not doing more to stop undocumented immigrants from entering the country.
In her role as vice president Harris has never controlled U.S. border policy. But after taking office Biden tasked Harris with tackling the root causes of migration to the United States from Central America.
New Biden administration immigration enforcement measures put in place this year have led to a significant drop in the number of people illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. In July, U.S. Customs and Border Protection apprehended 56,000 people illegally crossing the border, down from a monthly peak under Biden of 249,000 last December, according to federal data.
Harris has pointed to the drop while criticizing Trump for pressuring Republicans in Congress to reject a bipartisan immigration and border enforcement deal earlier this year that was backed by the White House.
But the polls show most Americans aren’t buying her argument, said Vince Galko, a Republican strategist.
“Harris is being dragged down by her party” on immigration, Galko said. “She’s not going to retrain voters’ minds in the next two months.”
Patrick Murray, the director of the Polling Institute at Monmouth University, said there’s still time for both candidates to highlight policy positions that might sway some voters.
That has already started happening with Harris. Polls show voter support for her approach to handling abortion and protecting threats to democracy has increased in recent weeks, Murray said. “It’s potentially bringing some additional voters out who may not have” backed Biden, he said.
The debate Tuesday offers Trump and Harris a prime opportunity to move the needle on key issues, Murray added. “A lot of voters who are on the fence will tune into it or pay attention to the coverage of it,” Murray said. “That means it could have an impact.”
