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THE Democrats should underestimate Donald Trump at their peril and be worried about shy Americans who will cast their ballot for the brash tycoon, a former Biden adviser has told The U.S. Sun.
Moe Vela urged Harris to stay on message and disciplined in what he called the Democratic Party’s greatest weakness ahead of her showdown clash with Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.
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With the polls neck and neck, neither candidate can afford a mistake that could sink their campaigns.
Several surveys show that Trump and Harris are within the margin of error in the battleground states in the race for 270 electoral college votes.
Vela, who served under Joe Biden during his vice presidency, warned the Democrats should be acting as if they are behind in the race.
He also noted the impact of shy Trump voters – Americans who don’t publicly say they are backing the tycoon but vote for him when they are in the polling booth.
read more on election 2024
“The Democrats have to be on a four-point alert until the last second until the last vote is cast,” Vela warned.
“That’s what I call the Trump closet vote. In the closet for Trump – [the voters] who aren’t going to come out of the closet until the day they go into that little booth.
“Nobody sees and knows who they voted for and that’s why the polls have always been very, very wrong or have projected incorrectly for the most part.
“Every time he runs – all three times – he’s been underestimated in the polls.”
Vela believes the Democrats need to think they’re behind in the race against Trump.
He suggested Harris needs to build up a lead of around five percentage points, outside the margin of error, to counter the effects of the shy Trump voter.
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Harris has seen a polling rise since Biden dropped out of the race in July and the Democratic establishment rallied around her.
She has enjoyed a steady rise in support since announcing her candidacy but Vela warned that she hasn’t seen a polling surge.
“Surging is a very overstated word. You see the trend line going up for Harris very gently, very gradually, very slowly,” he said.
“But, can she keep that up for 60 days? That’s the question.”
Vela, who served in both the Clinton and Obama Administrations, warned the race isn’t over despite Harris’ lead in national surveys and some battleground polls.
A study featuring 1,000 voters conducted by the Columbia Business School revealed that 54% of voters who hid their vote supported Trump in 2016.
And, research conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on election night in 2020, found that approximately one in five Trump supporters kept their vote a secret.
The final polls of the 2020 campaign seemed to underestimate Trump’s support.
In 2020, Biden’s margin of victory in Wisconsin was just over 20,000 votes, while in Georgia, it was less than 12,000.
Biden only carried the state by 0.63% while pollsters suggested his lead was around eight percentage points in their final surveys.
The final polls ahead of election day in Florida in 2020 suggested Biden had a lead of around two percentage points.
Trump scored a victory larger than his 2016 win in the Sunshine State.
Biden scored a smaller victory than expected in Pennsylvania, according to polls carried out pre-election.
An average of RCP, 270 To Win, and Real Clear Politics surveys suggested he would win by more than three points.
Biden carried the battleground state by less than 1.2 percentage points.
How to watch the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
KAMALA Harris and Donald Trump will have their first presidential debate on September 10. The U.S. Sun has everything you need to know:
The debate, which will last for 90 minutes, kicks off at 9pm ET and will air on ABC.
It will also be shown on ABC News’ 24/7 streaming network, Hulu and Disney+.
The debate will be moderated by ABC stars Linsey Davis and David Muir.
Harris and Trump will not make opening statements.
The candidates will have two minutes to answer a question.
Then, there is a two-minute window for debate.
An additional minute can be used for clarification or a follow-up.
Trump prevailed in a virtual coin toss and chose to make the final closing statement.
Both closing statements will be two minutes long.
Harris and Trump’s microphones will be muted when their rival is speaking.
Neither candidate will be able to ask their opponent questions.
Both candidates can have a pen and some paper at their podiums.
But, they are unable to take pre-written notes into the contest.
There will be two commercial breaks but Trump and Harris’ campaign teams will not be able to give tips to their respective candidates.
Source: ABC News.
Election Day is just two months away and Vela has urged Harris to stay on message and remain disciplined.
“This has been the greatest weakness of our Democratic Party, my entire adult political life,” Vela added.
“They can’t stay on message even if you paid them. But I give her and her campaign kudos and commendation. They are staying on message and the discipline is inspiring.”
Vela said the inability to stay on message has been the Democrats’ “Achilles heel.”
He claimed a Republican politician can constantly refer to their three main talking points – no matter what the question – when being quizzed on a Sunday morning politics show.
“Democrats get on a tangent. We go onto another passionate issue.
“We talk about this and that, and then we forget our original three talking points and we never get back to them,” he said.
‘STAY ON TASK’
Vela previously told The U.S. Sun that Harris has got to be prepared for Trump trying to throw her off-message.
Trump is likely to quiz her on the Administration’s handling of the economy and immigration at points during tonight’s showdown.
And, Harris will have to try and defend her record as Vice President.
Vela has urged Harris to say she was a team player, but ultimately tell Trump she didn’t make the final decision because she “respected” Biden.
He warned that any shift in the polls would be minimal – regardless of how the vice president performs.
“You’re still talking about a narrow pool of voters.”
The Democrats have to be on a four-point alert until the last second, until the last vote is cast.
Moe Vela
In the days leading up to the debate, Harris traveled to Pittsburgh to prepare with her team.
They reportedly revised their strategy after it emerged microphones would be turned off while the rival candidate was speaking, per CBS News.
Chris Christie, who launched an unsuccessful campaign to be the GOP’s presidential nominee, urged Harris not to get bogged down in an argument with Trump.
“If she refuses to engage him in that back-and-forth, which Hillary failed at miserably because she wasn’t good at it and she engaged, don’t engage with him on that,” he told ABC News on Sunday.
Harris told reporters she’s ready for the showdown, per The New York Times.
Meanwhile, Trump appears bullish and revealed he’s held meetings ahead of the debate.
Former Democratic lawmaker Tulsi Gabbard has endorsed Trump and has been helping the tycoon with his debate preparation, per Politico.
Gabbard has also been appointed to Trump’s presidential transition team.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who recently suspended his Independent campaign for president, is also on the team.
CAMPAIGN STALLS?
Just days before the debate, a New York Times/Siena poll put Trump ahead of Harris among likely voters by one percentage point.
The survey put Trump and Harris tied in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
However, 47% of the likely voters surveyed thought Harris was too liberal.
And more than a quarter admitted they want to learn more about Harris.
The poll revealed that only 25% of likely voters surveyed think Harris represents a major change.
Meanwhile, 53% of those surveyed thought Trump symbolizes a major change.
More than half of voters polled think Harris is just “more of the same” as the current administration.
Around 60% of those surveyed believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, according to the poll.
In a blow to the vice president, a majority of voters believe Trump handles immigration and the economy better than Harris.
The wide-ranging survey also found that 52% of likely voters polled think Harris is a risky choice for president.
Polymarket suggests Trump has a 52% chance of winning the election but the battlegrounds are up for grabs.
An average of polls compiled in the top battlegrounds suggests Harris’ lead is just 0.2%, according to Real Clear Politics.
The aggregator currently has Trump leading in Arizona and North Carolina.
But, the difference in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada is less than one percentage point.
Even in Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris’ lead is less than two percentage points so within the margin of error.
In a warning shot to Harris, Anthony Scaramucci, who served in the Trump Administration as Director of Communications in July 2017, admitted on an episode of the Rest Is Politics US podcast that he thinks her campaign is stalling.
