Democratic Arizona Senate candidate Ruben Gallego has nearly doubled his lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake for independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s soon-to-be vacant seat, according to the two most recent Morning Consult state polls.
The latest Morning Consult poll of 474 likely voters was conducted primarily after the first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, from September 9 to September 18. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The survey results favor Gallego, showing him with 53 percent of the vote compared to Lake’s 39 percent, a 14-percentage point difference. The poll shows a notable jump in Gallego’s support from a previous Morning Consult poll conducted just days before, August 30 to September 8. That poll put Gallego and Lake 8 percentage points apart, with Gallego at 49 percent and Lake at 41 percent.
Newsweek reached out to Gallego and Lake’s campaign teams for comment via email on Thursday.
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Most individual state polls and aggregators favor Gallego in the Senate race to fill Sinema’s seat, however with a smaller margin lead than the latest Morning Consult poll.
A new Emerson College Polling/ The Hill of 868 likely voters found 48 percent support Gallego, 42 percent back Lake, and 10 percent are undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Lake, a former television news anchor who lost her bid for Arizona governor in 2022 and claimed the election was rigged, dismissed an August 28 poll showing Gallego ahead by 15 points. In an interview with KTAR radio, she said, “Nobody wins by 15 points. I put zero stock in these polls.”
“The key issues in Arizona will likely be inflation, immigration, abortion and housing,” Noble Predictive Insights Chief of Research David Byler told Newsweek regarding the Arizona election.
November’s election could change control of the Senate, making down-ballot races closely watched as the presidential election is razor thin. The upper chamber is currently controlled by the Democrats, who hold a narrow majority of 51 seats as four independents caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49 seats.
The Cook Political Report now labels Arizona’s Senate seat as “Leans Democratic,” alongside three other battleground states, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with Michigan and Ohio’s Senate seats labeled “Toss Up.”
In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by just 0.4 percent, and national poll aggregators like FiveThirtyEight, show Trump leading Harris by 0.5 percent in the state. The Hill’s aggregate puts the two candidates apart by 0.1 percent, with Trump just edging ahead. Arizona has 11 Electoral College votes.
