Myanmar’s junta has widened its campaign of airstrikes as it battles for survival on multiple fronts against ethnic armies and forces that sprang up to oppose to its 2021 coup, a monitoring group said.
The expanded offensive by junta forces comes at a time that China has swung its support more fully behind the military government, with reports that it has supplied new attack aircraft and is pressuring armed groups to end their own advances against the army.
Data made available to Newsweek by Myanmar Witness, a nongovernmental organization that collects evidence of human rights abuses in the conflict, showed a series of four airstrikes in September that were more spread across the Southeast Asian country than had previously been the case.
It linked these airstrikes, which killed at least 12 people, to the start of an offensive called Operation Yan Naing Min, which the junta, known as the State Administration Council (SAC), launched after suffering major reverses against its opponents over the past year.
“The SAC has been using a lot of air power to try and force submission in those areas, as it loses space. On the ground, that use of air power is indiscriminate. We see that continuously, where we are constantly able to verify instances of damage to civilian property, critical civilian infrastructure, and indeed to civilians themselves, including women and children,” Matt Lawrence of Myanmar Witness told Newsweek.
“They’re starting as they mean to go on with that operation, with very little care towards civilians.”
Lawrence said that the military’s intent was evident from conversations monitored within pro-army groups in which language used included “kill everybody” and “just keep the land.” Myanmar Witness is implemented via the Western-government funded Center for Information Resilience.
Myanmar’s government did not respond to a request for comment.
Photo by AFP via Getty
Armed groups fighting the junta made significant gains in August, including the seizure of the regional North East Command at the town of Lashio, not far from the Chinese border and on a key transport artery. These were widely regarded as major victories for the ethnic armies, some of which are aligned with an underground National Unity Government.
Following the losses, China appeared to have stepped up its engagement with the junta, with high-level diplomacy including a visit from top diplomat Wang Yi. Even a year ago, China’s stance had been more ambivalent, with support for some of the anti-junta forces as they cracked down on criminal activity in the borderlands.
China’s Shifting Priorities
“China’s priorities have increasingly shifted to ensuring the security of its geostrategic position in Myanmar,” Jason Tower of the United States Institute of Peace told Newsweek.
“It has pivoted dramatically away from resistance forces in the north, now pressuring them to stop all revolutionary activity, to cut ties with the National Unity Government and to avoid any interactions with other international stakeholders. It is also providing the military with unprecedented international support and legitimacy, and with greater levels of security support, while dramatically reducing pressure on the regime to crackdown on crime.
“Meanwhile, it has also started to actively cut flows of weapons, supplies and even food to resistance forces in the China-Myanmar border area,” Tower said.
Among the additional assistance being sent to Myanmar from China were six FTC-2000G jets, according to the Irrawaddy news website. Such jets can be armed with missiles, rockets and bombs and can carry out exactly the sort of airstrikes that have been recorded from multiple battlefronts.
Myanmar Witness/Maptiler
Meanwhile, a document reviewed by Newsweek showed China’s growing concern over the junta position as it leaned on the United Wa State Army, one of the most powerful armed groups, to stop advances and said cross-border supplies were being blocked to apply pressure.
China’s embassy in Myanmar did not respond to a request for comment.
At stake in Myanmar, China not only needs to care about the security of its border, but it also has strategic concerns given that Myanmar allows it a route direct to the Indian Ocean coast, from where a pipeline already brings oil to China and where much bigger developments are planned.
Myanmar’s junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing and Chinese Ambassador Ma Jia agreed at a meeting in August to increase defense cooperation, according to the state-run Global New Light of Myanmar. Wang, China’s foreign minister also visited Myanmar in August.
“China respects Myanmar’s sovereignty, independence, national unity and territorial integrity, and stays committed to non-interference in Myanmar’s internal affairs and the Myanmar-owned and Myanmar-led peace process,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in August.
Myanmar’s junta has said it will hold elections, but its plan is rejected by the armed groups, which surged after the army seized power following the 2020 election won by now incarcerated democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Increased Chinese support for the junta could disrupt alliances within the anti-junta forces, said Tower, who is country director of USIP’s Burma program. Beijing’s support for the police could also strengthen its ability to crack down on pro-democracy forces in major cities, he said, but it could also backfire.
“China is playing a very dangerous game, as anti-China sentiment is now starting to rise, which could place China’s geostrategic investments at greater risk,” he said.
“As for the junta, even with greater levels of Chinese help, it continues to suffer defeat on the battlefield in Kachin and very recently in Sagaing. More importantly though, no level of Chinese support can change the fact that the junta is not legitimate, and that it is the primary agent of instability in Myanmar.
“China’s policy towards Myanmar has been prone to regular fluctuations, and it has pivoted many times before in the past. Should the junta continue to fail on the battlefield, and should it lose the increasingly limited control that it has over China’s geostrategic investments, China could shift its approach once again.”
