The final round of the BMW Championship should be a treat for golf fans. Keegan Bradley (12-under through three rounds) has a one-stroke lead over Adam Scott (-11) in the penultimate event of the 2023-24 PGA Tour season.
The Swedish duo of Ludvig Aberg (-10) and Alex Noren (-10) are still in the mix to win at Castle Pines, while major champs Xander Schauffele (-7) and Wyndham Clark (-7) need some luck on Sunday.
Here are three of my favorite BMW Championship picks for Sunday’s final round in Castle Rock.
Ludvig Aberg – Tournament Winner +330 (DraftKings)
Despite a par-72 on Thursday and Saturday’s one-under finish, Aberg finds himself just two shots behind Bradley for the lead. The 24-year-old shot a 63 on Friday and has the ability to produce a similar score this afternoon.
Aberg is fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (2.69) and sixth in SG: Around-the-Green (1.549). While Bradley has been better on approach shots, Aberg is over two strokes better on the green. Aberg’s putting advantage should play a considerable role in his comeback attempt.
The Swede’s +330 odds to win are third, behind Bradley (+240) and Scott (+300). Considering Scott’s struggles off the tee and Bradley’s uneven finishes, Aberg has enough value for me to take a swing.
Rory McIlroy – Top 10 Finish +105 (FanDuel)
It’s been a frustrating season for McIlroy in many regards, headlined by a late-round collapse at the U.S. Open and an early exit at the Open Championship last month. However, Rory’s sitting at plus-money to finish inside the top 10 at Castle Pines, and that’s something I can’t ignore.
McIlroy is still bombing shots from the tee box, sitting third in this week’s field in SG: Off-the-Tee (2.73). He’s been squarely in the middle of the pack in other key stats, though many players in front of him on Sunday are losing a stroke or more on approach shots, around the green and with the putter.
Golf fans have also witnessed many Sunday charges from the 2022 FedEx Cup champion. While he’s unlikely to earn the victory, McIlroy should do enough to walk out with a T10 finish ahead of next week’s Tour Championship.
Nick Dunlap – 2-Ball Winner vs. Sepp Straka -120 (DraftKings)
The final bet is a head-to-head between Dunlap and his playing partner, Straka. Both enter Sunday’s fourth round at 5-under, but Dunlap’s underlying stats show a higher probability of finishing in a better position.
Dunlap and Straka are nearly identical off the tee. However, the former is eighth in SG: Approach-to-Green (2.695) and SG: Around-the-Green (1.652). For perspective, Straka is 41st (-1.894) and 29th (-0.330) in those stats, respectively.
Straka’s position on the leaderboard is due to his putting, which ranks second behind Alex Noren in strokes gained through three rounds (4.48). But elite putting is much harder to replicate round-over-round than ball-striking, so we’re giving Dunlap the edge.
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