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WHEN Boris Yeltsin appointed Vladimir Putin as the next president in 1999, it was hoped the KGB agent would make Russia great again.
But 25 years on, with the ageing leader still at the helm for the foreseeable future, Putin’s tenure so far has been what experts describe as a “catastrophe”.
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After the first eight years as president of Russia, Putin stepped down to become a prime minister – only to avoid violating the limit of two consecutive terms in the Kremlin.
Though he was back as president in 2012 following an election that was marked by alleged frauds and protests – and has held the position ever since.
He has become the longest-serving Russian leader since Joseph Stalin, who led the Soviet Union from 1924 to 1953.
Last year, the tyrant changed the law in Russia to allow him to remain president until 2036 in a desperate bid to cling to power for as long as he can.
Putin’s political career echoes features of a megalomaniac tyrant: total authoritarian control over Russia, a brutal crackdown on dissent, manipulation – even on his own citizens – and an ambitious thirst for power.
Under his reign, he has – through propaganda – projected a false image of Russia as a world superpower to his own people.
He has exercised absolute power, allegedly killed a long list of critics, and has waged a war against the West’s idea of democracy.
His ambition to make Russia similar to the once-mighty Soviet Union saw him attacking Georgia in what was Europe’s first war of the 21st century.
He then invaded Ukraine in 2014, occupying the region of Crimea ever since.
And now, the tyrant has been waging a full-fledged war against Ukraine for the past two years – a war Putin thought he would win in a few weeks.
It has killed thousands of civilians in Ukraine, while hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have lost their lives in the meat-grinder conflict.
Putin is now set to unveil his final act as Russia’s president – a brutal war against NATO that he thinks would cement his legacy in world history.
Experts say his years as a leader – exercising absolute power without checks – have brought Russia to its knees.
A ‘DISASTROUS’ TENURE
Alan Mendoza, Russia expert and founder of the British think tank Henry Jackson Society, has described Putin’s term so far as a “complete disaster”.
He explained how Putin forced Russia to become a more “isolated and aggressive” country – one that is full of hate and despise against Western democracies.
And his inability to win the Ukraine war has tarnished the reputation of the leader, Mendoza argues.
The expert told The Sun: “Putin was thought to be a man who might well bring Russia into the international community, play a leading role, be responsible, and be a partner with other countries.
“That has all been torn to shreds by his behaviour in the last 15 years.
“Russia could have been an integrated trading nation, being part of the security architecture of the world. What you’ve had instead is an isolated and aggressive country, trying to overturn the world security order.
“And amidst that, seeing the myth of its military power being exposed ruthlessly by a much smaller country has really shown the true colours of his leadership.
“Russia’s prestige has tremendously gone down. Its abilities have been shown to be weak. It’s not much of a legacy for someone who’s been around for that long.”
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Security and politics expert Anthony Glees agreed – adding Putin is just like a “bully who is far less powerful when challenged”.
He said: “[Putin] has been a catastrophe for Russia and the Kursk incursion, however long it lasts, has shown that despite all his propaganda and his bluster, he is far less powerful than he appears to be if challenged.”
Mikhail Komin, Russian political scientist and visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Putin’s rule has been nothing short of a “personalist dictatorship”.
On March 17, 2024, Putin won the rigged Russian presidential elections – securing his place at the Kremlin’s top seat for at least 2030.
But his path to victory was littered with the bodies of his foes.
A long list of influential Russians have died in murky circumstances throughout Putin’s 24-year rule after opposing, criticising, or crossing the resentful despot.
The curious deaths – resulting from poisonings to shootings, and falls from windows to plane crashes – may have helped pave the way for the Russian dictator to remain in power.
Russia’s prestige has gone down tremendously. Its abilities have been shown to be weak. It’s not much of a legacy for someone who’s been around for that long
Dr Alan Mendoza
Putin’s most formidable opponent Alexei Navalny, 47, died in February in the strict-regime Polar Wolf jail in the Russian Arctic while serving a 19-year sentence on trumped-up “extremism” charges.
Navalny was believed to have been killed with one punch to the heart after being forced to spend hours in freezing temperatures.
Experts said the brutal method was once a “hallmark of the KGB”.
Endlessly vocal Putin critic and the head of the Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin, 62, died in August last year in a fireball private jet crash, according to Russia’s investigative committee.
He was a close confidant of Putin before he launched a rebellion in June last year, vowing to “punish” Russia for a deadly missile attack on one of his training camps in eastern Ukraine.
Putin blasted the uprising as a “mortal blow” to Russia and “a knife in the back of our people”.
This lack of accountability – coupled with Putin’s lust for power- has what led to the “catastrophic” Ukraine invasion, which almost all experts believe has been bleeding Russia dry.
Not only has it severely hit the Russian economy – and restricted growth opportunities for the country – it has made Putin’s grasp at Kremlin even stronger, Komin argues.
Komin said: “The invasion dealt a catastrophic blow to Russia’s future, effectively closing for many years the possibility of a pro-European vector of development for Russia, and bringing the standard of living of the population closer to developed countries.
“The Kremlin has completely suppressed any democratic opposition, achieved an increase in the loyalty of the elites inside and begun to introduce elements of state ideology which will allow it to raise the next, more loyal generation, which will truly be ‘Putin’s generation’.”
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A FINAL ACT
One of the biggest features of Putin’s rule in Russia has been his expansionist attitude towards Europe.
Keir Giles, Russia expert at Chatham House, said his war against Ukraine – and potentially Europe in the next few years – marks his attempt to “revive Russian imperialism”.
The defence expert told The Sun: “The full-scale war on Ukraine is bringing Russia back to its historical comfort zone and Putin’s historical comfort zone.
“Putin has been busily engaged in reinstalling permanent features of the late Soviet Union that were an anomaly during the period after the end of the Cold War which Putin inherited.”
Keir, who authored Who Will Defend Europe, said he is convinced Putin will not stop at Ukraine and will threaten to attack the West in the next five years.
He said the future of Putin’s Russia is a war against NATO – something the tyrant has been plotting for a long time.
Putin’s future is war with NATO, for which he has spent his entire time in office preparing
Keir Giles
He said: “It is striking that the assessments of Putin’s next moves that we hear from defence ministers, chiefs of defence, and intelligence chiefs across Europe and the US all say Putin will look to attack the West.
“If the situation in Ukraine is resolved or becomes more stable, whether it’s through Russian victory or potentially even a ceasefire, then Putin’s next target is one of the NATO countries and the timescales that have been put on that range between one and 5 years.
“Putin’s future is war with NATO, for which, of course, he’s spent his entire time in office preparing.”
President of Latvia Edgars Rinkevics previously told the Sun how Putin will not stop at Ukraine and has set his sights on three targets to rebuild the Russian empire.
He said the “first targets” of Putin’s mission to rebuild the Soviet empire would be to conquer Moldova and the Caucasus and Central Asia regions.
This sweeping Hitler-style land grab could include countries such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia as well as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan – all of which are sustained targets of Russian influence.
The security order of Europe will be threatened for “years if not decades to come,” Rinkevics warned.
THE AGEING RULER
Putin has long prided himself on his “strongman” image – but dramatic changes in his appearance over the past few years have prompted speculation he may be suffering from a severe illness.
His appearances in the last few years have shown him out of breath, stumbling over his words, or looking exhausted.
Keir said there is no doubt Putin’s health has deteriorated.
He added: “If you watch Putin closely, it’s hard to avoid the suspicion that often some of the appearances you’re seeing are not, in fact, the same person.
“You also notice the trends in his health over time. His health does seem to improve and deteriorate in different public appearances.
“There are be some times when he looks really quite frail, bloated, puffy, shaking, having to grip onto the table and only giving very short five-minute speeches even on major public events.
“And then there are times when he appears to bounce back as a much healthier individual who is standing up and speaking for 40 minutes.
“But what is actually wrong with him is a mystery to us all.”
Anthony said he was convinced Putin uses a body double – and is sustaining on Russian medicine science.
“I have to say Putin remains a man of mystery to me,” he said.
“I mean from time to time I’ve commented on his cheeks being puffed up. I’m convinced that he has body doubles.
“Putin is very interested in avatars and all that stuff, and we don’t know if the pictures that we’re being shown of Putin are actually pictures of Putin.”
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However, experts fear that Putin, who will turn 77 at the end of his current presidency, will clutch to power and seek to rule Russia for as long as he can.
And the reason why he will not give up his throne so easily lies in the history of Soviet Russia.
Keir told The Sun: “I don’t think there’s any reason to assume that he is going to consider at some point that he is too old to hang on to power and has to give it up because that’s traditional.
“Throughout Russian history, decisions like that have been fatal, and the exceptions to the rule are under very specific circumstances, like when Yeltsin handed over to Putin with the guarantees that he’s not going to be prosecuted for anything afterwards.”
Alan said Putin would be a “fair game” for anyone who succeeds him.
He added: “I think Putin is very aware of one thing in particular, which is the minute he leaves office he will be fair game for whoever comes after him.”
“He has made a lot of enemies domestically and internationally, and there is no way that he will want to end up at the end of an assassin’s bullet.
“He understands very well that the best safeguard for your security is to be in power and the minute you’re out of power you are putting your trust into someone else’s hands, and in Russian history that rarely works out well.”
Alan speculates internal forces inside the Kremlin could eventually remove Putin if he fails to end the Ukraine war in Russia’s favour.
He said: “If he is removed by internal forces depends on the success of this war in Ukraine.
“The longer this drags on, the more it seems that Putin’s on the defensive, and the more people might start to say internally: ‘he had his time, need to find someone else’.
“The moment those chatterings start, that is when there is a danger of a coup within.”
PLANS FOR SUCCESSION
Alan said he does not believe Putin has found his successor – but added would likely look for someone extremely close to him.
“Historically the way that dictators deal with succession is by choosing family members to succeed them,” he said.
“There seems to be no one in the extended Putin family who can take over.
“But perhaps down the line, there will be. Maybe that’s what he’s waiting for.”
And Keir argued it should not be ruled out may be preparing some kind of handover that “preserves both his life and the money he has raked off over his entire official career”.
He added: “It will be a complicated operation, and we should equally not be surprised if the only way Putin leaves the Kremlin is feet first, even if that comes after a period of ineffectiveness and senility, as we’ve also seen from previous Soviet leaders in the past.”
UKRAINE WAR
The experts told The Sun how Putin would look to drag on the Ukraine war as long as it served his purposes.
And even in the case the war does not end the way he thought it would, the dictator would create a false narrative against it among the Russians.
Alan said: “As long as it serves his purpose of staying in power, he will continue the Ukraine war and the moment it begins to threaten to destabilise he will move to end that war with some kind of ceasefire.
“It does not really matter how it ends, he will be able to spin it as a victory, whether he gets 1 cm of territory in Ukraine or several 100 miles.
“The one thing he might not be able to spin as a victory is, if Ukraine holds Russian territory, that will be very difficult to work out, and that, of course, would mean that he might be fair game for dismissal or removal internally if a coup happens there.”
Russia experts told The Sun how the world will continue to see a disruptive Putin in the coming years who will act as a spoiler in the international community.
Alan said: “We can expect just more of the same from him as a disruptor.
“He’s firmly nailed his colours to the mast.
“He’s not going to suddenly change track and become the best friend of the West, and even if he did, we wouldn’t believe it.
“He’s begun to try and grab as much as he can for Russia and as in many inventive ways as he will be able to do so.
“And he’ll continue to act as a spoiler in the international community as well propping up when we least want him to, and trying to cause disruption.”
Why has Ukraine invaded Russia?
By Ellie Doughty, Foreign News Reporter
UKRAINE’S daring invasion into Russia has been launched for two key reasons – with one aimed at Putin and one at the West.
A high-ranking Ukrainian official told AFP that the idea behind the attack is to stretch Putin’s armies as much as possible, spreading them thinly over different areas.
The security brass told AFP on condition of anonymity that “the aim is to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses and to destabilise the situation in Russia as they are unable to protect their own border”.
As well as acting as a huge morale-boosting win for Ukraine – the invasion also has a second key purpose in Kyiv’s masterplan.
It is a message to allies in the West who have closely monitored Putin’s war.
Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady told The Washington Post: “This is definitely one consideration that it is really a signal to the West and to Ukrainian allies and partners that Ukraine is still capable of launching offensive operations.
“That Ukraine is capable of conducting fairly complex operations into enemy territory.”
Vlad on the other hand claims Ukraine are simply trying to gain leverage for peace talk negotiations.
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