Astros vs. Phillies prediction, odds, pick

The Houston Astros will begin a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday at Citizens Bank Park. It’s a potential World Series preview as we share our MLB odds series and make an Astros-Phillies prediction and pick.

Astros-Phillies Projected Starters 

Ronel Blanco vs. Zack Wheeler 

Ronel Blanco (9-6) with a 3.14 ERA …

Last Start: Blanco struggled in his last outing, going just 3 2/3 innings, allowing five earned runs, six hits, striking out six, and walking four in a no-decision against the Boston Red Sox.

2024 Road Splits: Blanco has been better on the road, going 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA over 11 starts away from home.

Zack Wheeler (12-6) with a 2.73 ERA

Last Start: Wheeler was a hard-luck loser in his last outing, losing to the Atlanta Braves despite pitching six innings, allowing two earned runs, six hits, and striking out eight.

2024 Home Splits: Wheeler has been better at him, going 8-3 with a 2.40 ERA over 13 starts at Citizens Bank Park.

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Astros-Phillies Odds

Houston Astros: +1.5 (-156)

Moneyline: +142

Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+130)

Moneyline: -168

Over: 8 (-110)

Under: 8 (-110)

How to Watch Astros vs. Phillies 

Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT

TV: FS1

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Astros have amazingly rallied from a poor start. Yet, there is still work to do if they want to win this division. They will need their hitters to get the job done. Ultimately, they have some who are still clobbering the baseball.

Jose Altuve is still around and has much experience hitting against the Phillies, with some positive results. Significantly, he is batting .318 with 21 hits, five RBIs, and 10 runs over 16 games against them in his career. Altuve also hit .308 with eight hits and five runs in six games during the 2022 World Series.

Alex Bregman has succeeded against the Phillies, batting .292 with seven hits, one home run, two RBIs, and six runs over eight games against the Phillies. Furthermore, he enjoys playing at Citizens Bank Park, hitting .667 with four hits, one home run, one RBI, and four runs over two games in Philadelphia. Yordan Alvarez would like better results against the Phillies than he did in the 2022 World Series. Unfortunately, he hit just .130 with three hits, one home run, six RBIs, and four runs over the six-game series.

Blanco has struggled recently, getting one quality start in six outings. Now, he will have a tougher test against the Phillies. When Blanco finishes, he will turn it over to the sixth-best bullpen in baseball. Josh Hader has been elite, going 6-6 with a 3.36 ERA with 27 saves in 28 chances.

The Astros will cover the spread if Altuve and Bregman can set the tone and Alvarez can clobber the baseball into the seats. Then, they need a good outing from Blanco to avoid the dangerous bets that the Phillies possess.

Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Phillies are not the best team in the National League anymore, as the Los Angeles Dodgers recently overtook them. Therefore, there is work to do, and the Phillies must start winning games again. It all starts with their offense.

Alec Bohm has been exceptional all season and leads the team in hits. Now, he will attempt to continue his momentum and get on base to spark the offense. Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies in home runs and will look to batter the baseball into the right-center field seats. However, he has struggled against the Astros, batting just .200 with five hits, all home runs, with RBIs, and seven runs over eight games against them in his career.

Bryce Harper is still a threat at the plate. Yet, he, too, has struggled against the Astros, hitting just .105 with two hits and two runs over five games against them. Trea Turner needs to hit the ball better. Ultimately, he has also struggled against the Astros, batting just .159 with seven hits and four runs over 10 games.

Wheeler has dominated lately, nabbing four consecutive quality starts. Significantly, he has continued to dominate and hopes to keep it up. When Wheeler finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that ranks just 17th in team ERA. Unfortunately, no one has established themselves as the closer, as both Jose Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman have struggled.

The Phillies will cover the spread if Bohm can get things going and Schwarber, Harper, and Turner all batter the baseball. Then, they need a dominating performance from Wheeler.

Final Astros-Phillies Prediction & Pick

The Astros are just 65-64 against the run line, while the Phillies are 64-64. Significantly, the Astros are 34-29 against the run line on the road, while the Phillies are 32-32 against the run line at home. But the one thing that gives the Phillies the edge is Wheeler. Amazingly, he has continued to evolve into a great pitcher and does not seem to be slowing down. Expect Wheeler to dominate the Astros and do enough to win this match.

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Final Astros-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+130)