Republican Texas Senator Ted Cruz still holds a financial advantage over his Democratic challenger, Representative Colin Allred, in his campaign for reelection — but the Dallas-area Congressman has pulled impressive fundraising, earning more donations than Cruz every quarter since entering the race.
Democrats view the Senate race in Texas as one of few opportunities to flip a GOP-held seat in November, though Cruz is still viewed as the favorite. Texas, once viewed as one of the reddest states in the country, has become increasingly competitive in recent years, though Democrat dreams of flipping the Lone Star State blue are yet to materialize.
Texas has creeped toward purple-state status due to growth in cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston, and as their suburbs shift away from Republicans. President Joe Biden’s performance in the state was the strongest in decades for a presidential candidate, and Democrat Beto O’Rourke nearly beat Cruz in 2018.
Some recent polls suggest the Texas senate race is growing tighter, but Allred hasn’t led a single poll of the race this year.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Fundraising, on the other hand, has been more of a mixed bag for Cruz.
Cruz has raised more money than Allred, but he has also been in the campaign longer, as sitting senators effectively start running for reelection as soon as they’re sworn in.
Allred joined the race in May 2023, so his fundraising has lagged Cruz’s head start. But Allred’s candidacy has drawn substantial Democratic donations to the race, outraising Cruz each quarter since entering the race.
In total, the Texas Republican has raised a total of $59.6 million, while Allred has raised about $38.4 million to date, according to data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC).
Cruz’s campaign also has more money in its pockets—FEC data shows him with $12.7 million in cash on hand, compared to Allred’s $10.5 million.
When reached by Newsweek, a campaign spokesperson pointed to a press release highlighting that Allred has outraised Cruz since announcing his campaign.
Newsweek also reached out to the Cruz campaign for comment via email.
In the second quarter of 2024, Allred raised about $10.5 million compared to Cruz’s $7.9 million according to FEC reports filed by each campaign.
Despite his advantage, Cruz has raised concerns about the money flooding into his opponent.
“A liberal Democrat named Colin Allred is outraising Beto O’Rouke, my last opponent, three to one. They are flooding millions of dollars into Texas,” Cruz told Fox News back in April.
Joshua Blank, the research director for the Texas Politics Project, told Newsweek that fundraising is crucial in a large, diverse state like Texas, where there are several big media markets to target. It can also pose a challenge for candidates running against established incumbents, he said.
“The size of the state, its diverse population, and multiple, large media markets make Texas a uniquely challenging, and particularly expensive state to campaign in,” Blank said.
According to OpenSecrets, Cruz has also been spending more than Allred. Cruz has spent about $45.2 million, compared to the $27.4 million spent by the Allred campaign, according to the nonprofit.
Texas Senate Race’s Importance in 2024 Election
The Texas senate map may become increasingly important for Democrats, whose majority hinge on victories in a handful of Republican-leaning states. Senate seats in Ohio and Montana, both of which have Democratic incumbents, have been viewed as the closest, though the Montana seat held by Sen. John Tester is looking increasingly out of reach for Democrats to hold, according to a string of recent strong GOP state polls.
If Republicans flip Montana, Democrats would need to flip either Cruz’s seat in Texas or Florida, where Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is challenging Republican Rick Scott, for an even split in the Senate. In that scenario, the vice president would serve as a tiebreaker. But significant investment in Texas comes with a hefty price tag, Blank said.
“A commitment to a statewide candidate is a eight figure proposition in Texas if it’s going to be truly meaningful, and that’s not money that national Democrats can easily throw around given the presence of other states that are both more tightly contested and more directly pivotal to the outcome of the presidential election this cycle,” he said.
Allred, a former NFL player, was first elected to Congress in the 2018 midterms, which saw Democrats flip suburban House seats across the country in a “blue wave” election that came in the midst of Donald Trump’s presidency. Allred rode that wave to win a purple seat outside of Dallas.
He has sought to portray himself as a more moderate candidate than Cruz but has faced questions about his stance on immigration, a key issue for the border state. Cruz, meanwhile, has faced backlash over his stance on reproductive rights, an issue that has proven to be a weak point for many Republicans.
Colin Allred’s Chances of Beating Ted Cruz, According to Polls
Polls suggest Texas’ senate race has tightened as Election Day inches closer.
A YouGov/Texas Politics Project poll, conducted among 1,200 registered voters from August 23 to 31, found Cruz with an 8-point lead over Allred (44 percent to 36 percent).
That survey has found Allred consistently gaining against Cruz. The pollsters found Cruz with an 11-point lead (45 percent to 34 percent) in a poll conducted from May 31 to June 9, and a 13-point lead in a poll conducted from April 12 to April 22.
Allred has “already done a lot to close the gap,” Blank said.
“Allred has room to grow among Democratic voters who still haven’t formed an impression of the first time statewide candidate, while attitudes towards Cruz remain relatively fixed, with his own vote share hovering around 44 to 46 percent,” he said.
Elsewhere, a Morning Consult poll found Cruz with a 5-point lead over Allred (47 percent to 42 percent). It surveyed 2,940 likely voters from August 30 to September 8. An Emerson College/The Hill poll found Cruz leading by just four points (48 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 845 likely voters from September 3 to September 5.
Texas is notably one of the view competitive senate races where the Republican candidate has more money than the Democratic candidate. Democrats are leading fundraising in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Cruz previously referred to himself as Democrats’ “number one target” during an interview with Fox News in February.
In 2020, Donald Trump won Texas by more than 5 points, with just over 52 percent of the vote compared to Biden’s 46.5 percent. That same year, Senator John Cornyn beat back a challenge from Democrat M.J. Hegar by nearly 10 points, winning 53.5 percent of the vote to Hegar’s 43.9 percent.
Four years earlier, Cruz defeated O’Rourke, then a congressman representing El Paso, by only 2.6 points, winning 50.9 percent of the vote to O’Rourke’s 48.3 percent. Although Democrats fell just short of a victory, the results fueled Democratic optimism that they could turn Texas blue in time.
The Cook Political Report classifies the Cruz-Allred race as “Likely Republican,” meaning it is “not considered competitive at this point but” has “the potential to become engaged.”
