Statistician Nate Silver, founder of polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has identified what he believes are five mistakes made by former President Donald Trump’s 2024 election campaign.
Posting to X, formerly Twitter, in the hours following Tuesday’s presidential debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Silver said:
“We’ll see where the model is in 2 weeks, but 4 huge mistakes for the Trump campaign so far:”
The four “mistakes,” according to the statistician and blog writer, were:
- Vance
- Meandering convention speech, blowing moment of goodwill
- Not prepared for Harris swap
- Clearly not prepped well for tonight’s debate and/or incapable of sustained A-game
We’ll see where the model is in 2 weeks, but 4 huge mistakes for the Trump campaign so far:
1. Vance
2. Meandering convention speech, blowing moment of goodwill
3. Not prepared for Harris swap
4. Clearly not prepped well for tonight’s debate and/or incapable of sustained A-game https://t.co/NriJXbmqoQ— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 11, 2024
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Trump named Vance as his running mate in July, but the senator has since been hit with negative poll scores and rumors that Trump was less than happy with his selection—rumors the Trump team have dismissed.
The Silver Bulletin writer also said the Trump team was not prepared for the change in opponent from Biden to Harris.
Some members of a post-debate Fox News voter panel suggested as much, expressing the view that Trump did not know how to attack his new opponent.
“He is still in his head basically trying to run against Joe Biden,” one voter said.
Trump has previously complained about the switch-over on his social media platform Truth Social.
“So, we are forced to spend time and money on fighting Crooked Joe Biden, he polls badly after having a terrible debate, and quits the race,” Trump wrote.
“Shouldn’t the Republican Party be reimbursed for fraud in that everybody around Joe, including his doctors and the Fake News Media, knew he was not capable of running for, or being, President? Just askin’?”
Win McNamee/Getty Images
In addition, Silver said Trump was “clearly not prepped well for [Tuesday night’s] debate and/or incapable of sustained A-game.”
According to the aforementioned Fox News voter panel, and a flash poll conducted by CNN, Harris came out on top during the debate.
Silver also claimed Trump’s speech at the Republican National Convention was “meandering.”
In a follow-up post, Silver said there was one additional “mistake”—accepting an early debate with President Joe Biden.
He said this was “probably the most consequential of all.”
Growing pressure on Biden following his poor debate performance culminated in his withdrawal from the race for the White House and subsequent endorsement of Harris—who quickly saw a flood of donations pour in for her campaign.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump campaign for comment via email outside of standard working hours.
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