Florida women are becoming a problem for former President Donald Trump’s White House dreams, a new poll shows.
A new poll released by the Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) on Wednesday found Vice President Kamala Harris with a 10-point lead over Trump among female voters in the former president’s home state, with 53 percent supporting Harris and 43 percent backing Trump. In April, 48 percent of Florida women supported President Joe Biden.
Dr. Kevin Wagner, co-executive director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, told Newsweek on Thursday that part of the reason Harris has seen a boost among female voters in the Sunshine State is because her candidacy has united the traditional Democratic coalition, which includes a gender gap where women are more likely to vote Democratic and men are more likely to vote Republican.
Joe Raedle
“Part of the reason that Biden was falling behind was because the Democratic base had not united behind him as a candidate, ” Wagner said. “What you’re seeing, certainly in our poll and other national polls, is that the traditional Democratic coalition is coalescing behind Vice President Harris.”
He said that while the gender gap is not as substantial in Florida as it is in other states, “it’s certainly there and it does suggest that women voters are starting to look more favorably on Vice President Harris than they did on President Biden.”
Harris and Trump are fighting for the suburban woman voting bloc, which was critical to Biden’s 2020 victory. About 55 percent backed the Democrat, while 43 percent voted for Trump, a shift from 2016, when suburban women were more divided between the two parties.
Political strategist Jay Townsend told Newsweek that the new FAU PolCom Lab survey suggests that Trump not only has a “woman problem,” but “a very serious one with well-educated suburban women.”
“It may not be enough to sink him in Florida, but it would behoove the Trump campaign to take a hard look at how this may be affecting him in key swing states,” Townsend said. “If it is, it would also suggest they have had a negative reaction to the bombastic assaults on Vice President Harris.”
Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, has come under fire over comments he has made about suburban women and reproductive rights that even conservatives have warned will alienate female voters from the GOP.
In recent weeks, Vance has defended resurfaced comments in which he labeled Harris and other Democrats without biological children as “childless cat ladies.” Harris is the stepmom to two children that her husband, second gentleman Doug Emhoff, shares with his ex-wife. Vance also told Fox News on Wednesday that suburban women aren’t overly concerned about reproductive rights and are focused on “normal things” like inflation, grocery prices and public safety instead.
Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek that Harris’ boost among Florida women shows the momentum her campaign has been able to sustain three weeks after Biden stepped aside and endorsed his vice president as the Democratic nominee.
Patton said one of the biggest indicators of trouble for the Trump campaign would be their spending on a state like Florida, which the former president carried in 2020 with 51.2 percent of the vote. Trump’s 3.4-point margin in the last election is the largest margin in any presidential election in Florida since 2004.
“If you see the Trump campaign being forced to spend resources in what was considered a solid red Florida that would indicate a massive concern and an expanding electoral map,” Patton said. “The larger concern is does Trump become a drag on down-ballot races such as the U.S. Senate race in Florida.”
Republican Senator Rick Scott continues to lead Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 4 points, with 47 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, but Wagner noted that “there is increasing evidence that this race could be competitive in November.”
Although Scott has strong support from male voters, nearly 54 percent, female voters favor Mucarsel-Powell, backing her by nearly 49 percent, compared to just 40 percent of women who back Scott.
There is also an abortion amendment on the ballot in Florida this year, which Democrats are hoping will drive voter turnout that benefits Harris.
In November, voters in the state will vote “yes” or “no” on a measure ensuring that no law shall prohibit abortion before viability. FAU PolCom Lab’s poll found that 59 percent of women support the amendment, compared to 54 percent of men. The amendment is also backed by 80 percent of Democrats, 59 percent of independents and 35 percent of Republicans.
“They’re hoping that while [voters are at the polls], they’ll also vote for some of the candidates, including Harris,” Wagner said. “The question is how much will that matter? Florida is a bit of a right-leaning state. It’s a little bit more conservative and you can see by the registration numbers that the state has become a little more Republican over time. But the question will always be in Florida.
“It’s a question of degrees. How big is that gap? The Harris campaign would like to maximize it so that it looks a little closer to the Obama years, and of course, Republicans would like to minimize it. So, the degree to which the gender gap is really driven is where the battle really is in this election.”
FAU PolCom’s survey was conducted from August 10 to 11 and sampled 1,055 registered Florida voters. It has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.
