Vice President Kamala Harris has received the best presidential election polling result for Democrats in over a year in the potentially critical swing state of Nevada.
Harris, who has been riding a wave of momentum since launching her campaign following President Joe Biden’s exit from the race on July 21, is leading former President Donald Trump in The Silver State by 5.6 percent in a poll released on Friday by The Nevada Independent.
Biden won Nevada by just over 2 percent in 2020. However, the president was consistently lagging behind Trump in Nevada in nearly all polls conducted this year, with the outlier being an Emerson College/The Hill survey that showed Biden drawing level with the ex-president.
Limited polling conducted since Harris became Trump’s opponent has revealed mixed but far more positive results for Democrats. A Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll released late last month showed the vice president up by 2 points. Other polls show Trump with a slim lead or the race tied.
Andrew Harnik
The Nevada Independent survey, conducted by pollster and Columbia University lecturer David Wolfson, was the best result for the Democratic presidential ticket since a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll released in October showed Biden leading Trump by 3 percentage points.
The new poll, which was conducted among 991 likely Nevada voters from August 3 to August 5, showed that Harris was favored by 49.2 percent of respondents. Trump was supported by 43.6 percent of voters, while independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was preferred by 3.9 percent. The poll has a 3 percent margin of error.
Wolfson suggested that the results were less the product of enthusiasm for Harris and more an indication of support for Democrats other than Biden, telling The Nevada Independent that there had been “a collective sigh of relief that Joe Biden is not going to be running” and any other Democrat “would be polling as well at this point of the race.”
A Nevada Independent poll released in April 2023, which was conducted partially before Biden announced his plans to then seek a second term, showed the incumbent Democrat leading Trump by 8 points in a hypothetical 2020 rematch.
Newsweek reached out for comment to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email on Friday evening.
Nevada is not the only swing state where Harris has made significant polling gains less than three weeks since entering the race. Averages of recent polls compiled by polling website FiveThirtyEight also showed the vice president with small leads over Trump in the crucial “Rust Belt” swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as of Friday.
Trump’s leads in Nevada’s fellow “Sun Belt” swing states of Georgia and Arizona have been whittled down to less than 1 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight averages. Biden won all six of the battleground states in 2020, mostly by slim margins.
On Thursday, the Cook Political Report moved 2024 forecasts of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” states. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also shifted Georgia, Minnesota and New Hampshire toward the Democrats this week, with Minnesota and New Hampshire moving to “likely Democrat” and Georgia becoming a “toss-up.”
