Kamala Harris’s decision to pick Tim Walz as her 2024 running mate will make it “a lot more challenging” for her to win the key swing state of Pennsylvania, as opposed to if she had chosen its governor, Josh Shapiro, according to a prominent political scientist.
Harris announced her choice of Walz as her running mate on Tuesday via a post on X. The pair held their first rally together in Philadelphia later that evening.
Walz, who has been Minnesota’s governor since 2019 and previously served in the House of Representatives, used his address in Philadelphia to mock Senator JD Vance, Donald Trump’s running mate. He said he was willing to debate the Ohio Republican “if he’s willing to get off the coach and show up.”
Other candidates who were reportedly under consideration to be Harris’s running mate include Shapiro, whose state has 19 Electoral College votes, along with Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Thomas Gift, director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek that Harris choosing Walz as her VP would make Pennsylvania a tougher race than if she had picked Shapiro.
“Pennsylvania isn’t out of reach for Harris, but there’s no doubt it just became a lot more challenging to win. Governor Shapiro likely would have energized a large swath of Pennsylvanians, both in red and blue counties, and given Harris an edge in securing its critical 19 electoral votes,” Gift said.
“If Harris fails to reach 270 electoral votes in November, and PA turns from blue to red, there will be lots of second-guessing her choice.”
Professor Christopher Devine, who teaches politics at the University of Dayton, previously told Newsweek that Walz was a solid pick due to his political experience.
“His selection should reassure voters about Kamala Harris’ judgment as a potential president. After all, she could have made the more politically expedient choice by picking Shapiro, simply to win his home state and perhaps help win the election,” Devine, the author of Do Running Mates Matter?: The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections, said.
“But he is a first-term governor who has never served in federal office and lacks foreign policy experience. Walz is a two-term governor who served for more than a decade in Congress. He is ready to be vice president, or even president, on Day One, in a way that Shapiro and other VP finalists simply weren’t.”
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Professor Cary Coglianese, an expert in political science at the University of Pennsylvania’s Carey Law School, said Harris was “not putting all her chips on the table in Pennsylvania” by not picking Shapiro as her running mate, though he fully expects the governor to “be doing all he can to deliver Pennsylvania to the Harris-Walz campaign.”
Overall, Conglianese argued that Walz was a “safe, smart choice.”
“He brings military experience and a rural Midwestern vibe to the ticket. But he is also a very effective spokesperson for progressive values and will help motivate turnout from the Democratic base. For these reasons, Walz is the choice most likely to add appeal both to progressives as well as independents, which is a rare combination,” Conglianese said.
Newsweek reached out to representatives of Vice President Kamala Harris, Governor Tim Walz and Governor Josh Shapiro for comment via email on Wednesday outside of regular office hours.
Speaking to The Philadelphia Inquirer earlier this month, Bill Bretz, the Republican Party chair for Pennsylvania’s Westmoreland County, said Shapiro was the most dangerous potential Harris running mate for the GOP in his state.
Referring to the governor, he said: “Of the people she could possibly pick, he would be the one that makes it the most challenging because that’s a name that people are familiar with.”
