Older Americans are more likely to back continued US support for Israel, putting them at odds with younger generations, exclusive polling for Newsweek has found.
A year on from the October 7 Hamas attacks on southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and at least 250 taken hostage, there is no end in sight to the war in Gaza—which has tested President Joe Biden‘s global influence and could be a ballot box issue for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, which has killed at least 42,000 people according to local health authorities, has strained U.S. relations with Jerusalem and spurred criticism of the Biden administration amid the prospect of a wider regional war.
This article is part of Newsweek‘s tracker polling, where Americans have been asked questions on topics such as abortion, immigration and the war in Ukraine over the past 16 months.
Polling was conducted exclusively by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek between July 2023 and October 2024. Altogether, 19 polls were conducted, asking 34,800 eligible voters about the key issues of the 2024 election. Questions were added in February 2024 about U.S. backing for Israel’s war against Hamas.
The latest survey, on October 6 found that across all respondents, 34 percent agreed that American support should continue “until Israel wins the war.” This was roughly in line with opinion since polling on the issue started—with the lowest level of backing being 25 percent, recorded on April 11.
But a closer look at the demographic breakdown showed that those aged between 18 and 26, known as Generation Z, are more skeptical than older voters of Washington’s backing for its Middle Eastern ally.
The survey on October 6 found that 27 percent of Generation Z voters agreed that U.S. support should continue until Israel wins compared with 44 percent of Boomers—the generation aged 59 and over.
Meanwhile, 16 percent of Gen Z voters said on October 6 the US should stop its support for Israel in the war right now, double the 8 percent of Boomers who held this view.
“You have an older generation that grew up with a different conception of the U.S. relationship with Israel,” said Matt Duss, executive vice president at the DC-based Center for International Policy, “there was a much stronger sense that Israel was under threat and needed U.S. support.”
“Younger voters have grown up with the reality that Israel is a regional military superpower,” he told Newsweek, “so some of those arguments about Israel’s existential threats have far less traction with these voters.”
The war in Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon has exercised emotions on U.S. campuses. On October 7, both pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian students held demonstrations at Columbia University, which has become the epicenter of protests over the war and has stepped up security measures.
Generation Z disapproves
Redfield & Wilton say the polling across 2024 shows the two youngest generational groups (Gen Z and Millennials) are almost 20 points less likely than Boomers to say the U.S. should maintain its level of support until the war ends.
“Political consultants often tend to dismiss the youth vote. What they should be concerned about is not just do people turn out and vote on Election Day but do these people show up and help get out the vote?” Duss said, referring to the canvassing, door knocking and volunteering needed to maximize turnout.
“Young people disproportionately do a lot of that volunteer work. Vice President Harris, becoming the candidate actually helped that problem quite a bit. But as this war has continued with really no change in policy, I do think that is still a concern.”
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Philip van Scheltinga, Redfield & Wilton’s director of research, noted how this year’s U.K. General Election, polling failed to capture the Labour Party’s underperformance in areas of high ethnic concentration in response to what was happening in Gaza.
“Because these populations are such a small part of the electorate, polling was not able to pick up on this trend,” he told Newsweek.
“The same could happen in the U.S., where anger over the situation in Gaza resulting in a Democratic underperformance among small, but potentially electorally relevant populations is missed by pollsters.”
Some 14 percent of all respondents in October believed that U.S. support for Israel in the war should stop now, equal to the previous lowest figure—14 percent recorded in August 2024. But the polling showed a split among those who plan to vote for Harris and those who plan to vote for Trump in November.
The latest poll found that 27 percent of Harris supporters agreed with continued US support for Israel until it wins, a level which has remained relatively unchanged since she entered the presidential race.
However, more Trump supporters—45 percent, held that view in October, a slight dip from 48 percent in the August poll. An average over the eight polls of just over 40 percent of Trump voters backed continued U.S. support.
Nearly half (44 percent) of Harris supporters said in October that backing for Israel should be “reconsidered.” This poll was carried out just days after Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, and saw that response rise from 35 percent the previous month.
In October’s survey, 12 percent of Harris voters said that support should stop now—compared with 14 percent of Trump supporters.
Andrew Latham, professor of international relations at Macalester College in Saint Paul, Minnesota, said that the war may not be a defining issue for the presidential election campaign ahead of November 5 “but it has been differentiating.”
“The Democrats are back,” he said. This is because he believes the party is both trying to maintain Israel can defend itself while arguing this is limited by the humanitarian need for a ceasefire and the geopolitical urgency for de-escalation.
Democrats also must accommodate the more pro-Palestinian wing of the Democrat base, something the GOP does not have to worry about, he added.
“The Republicans, on the other hand, have been free to make the less qualified case that Israel has every right to defend itself—no matter the escalatory risks,” Latham said.
“The Republicans are also able to make the case that what Israel is doing helps undermine Iran’s efforts to assert its hegemony in the Persian Gulf region,” he added.
Reconsidering US support for Israel
Around one-third (34 percent) of all respondents in October believed that the U.S. should “reconsider its support,” a figure which reached a high of 36 percent in three previous polls this year—on 10 February, 15 March and 11 April.
“Both parties have been concerned with staying in the good graces of the Israel lobby rather than following voter opinion,” said Matthew Hoh, associate director of the Eisenhower Network, a think tank that advocates diplomacy in U.S. foreign policy.
“The Democrats made the calculation last fall that losing progressive and Arab-Muslim votes was safer than losing the support of the Israel lobby,” he told Newsweek.
Meanwhile, Hoh believes that the GOP, most of whose voters are receptive to a harder line with Israel, hope the Democrats will make a misstep.
“That the Democrats will anger the Israel lobby and the GOP will gain has been the most important determinant of U.S. policy over the last year.”
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The US Election Will Likely Decide Ukraine’s Fate. Here’s What Voters Think
Bad News For Kamala Harris—Majority Say Economy Heading in Wrong Direction
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