Kamala Harris’ chances of beating Donald Trump in the presidential race may hinge on Muslim voters in the battleground state of Michigan, as she faces questions about whether some Muslim and Arab Americans will stay home — or even vote Trump — in protest over the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza.
Michigan is the swing state with the largest concentration of Muslim voters, a group that overwhelmingly backed Democrats in recent presidential races. But large swaths of those voters have been alienated by the Biden administration’s handling of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which comes amid a wider conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Now some Democrats are raising concerns that Muslim and Arab-American voters may be breaking away from Harris in the last weeks of the race.
Even a small shift among that voting bloc could be consequential in Michigan, one of the handful of battleground states that could determine the outcome of the race between Harris and former President Donald Trump.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate showed Harris leading Trump by only 1.8 points as of Wednesday morning, and most polls have been well within the margin of error.
JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images
Four years ago in 2020, the state narrowly backed President Joe Biden by fewer than 155,000 votes, and it is expected to be decided by a razor-thin margin again in November.
There are about 206,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan, largely concentrated in the Detroit area, according to the organization Emgage, which has endorsed Harris.
“Given how tight things will be, a handful of votes could matter. In Michigan, there are over 200,000 registered Muslim voters. They, in 2020, voted for Biden by about 70 percent, and so a significant drop there could cost the Democrats the election,” Wa’el Alzayat, the CEO of Engage, told Newsweek.
Biden has cast himself as a strong supporter of Israel, backing its right to defend itself against Hamas after its attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 Israelis and taking 250 others hostage. At least 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war that followed, the Associated Press reported, citing the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health.
While supplying Israel arms, Biden has simultaneously been critical of some actions of the Israeli government in Gaza and elsewhere. But for many Democrats, Muslim and non-Muslim alike, that tepid criticism has not been enough.
Harris, attempting to put some daylight between her and the president, has emphasized the humanitarian conditions in Gaza on the campaign trail as she seeks to rebuild trust among the Muslim and Arab-American community. But critics say she has not done enough to differentiate her approach. She has called for a ceasefire in the conflict.
An Arab American Institute poll released earlier in October suggested Trump is gaining ground among Muslim voters.
The poll showed him receiving 42 percent of the vote, compared to Harris’ 41 percent. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent who has exited the race and endorsed Trump, received six percent of the vote. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West received five percent and one percent support from Muslim voters respectively, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 500 Arab American voters between September 9 and September 20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign for comment via email.
Alzayat of Emgage said he is “seeing indications” that many Muslim voters may come home to Democrats in the final stretch of the campaign. Emgage has supported Harris, and Alzayat said a potential Harris victory would just be “the beginning of our work” to end the conflict in Gaza.
His message to Muslim Americans who are disaffected by the Biden administration is that he believes he could better work with Harris and challenge her to pressure Israel for a ceasefire. Trump, he said, has supported policies at odds with the interests of Muslim voters both domestically and in the Middle East.
“After January, who would we rather have to push our anti-war agenda? Is it Donald Trump, who thinks it’s a good idea for Netanyahu to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, or Kamala Harris, who is the only one of the two candidates who said she supports a ceasefire?” he said. “It’s a no-brainer.”
Amer Ghalib Facebook
Some high-profile Muslim Americans, including Amer Ghalib, the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, have backed Trump’s bid.
“Though it’s looking good, he may or may not win the election and be the 47th president of the United States,” Ghalib said in a post on his Facebook page.
“I’ll not regret my decision no matter what the outcome would be, and I’m ready to face the consequences. For this, and for many other reasons, I announce my support and endorsement for the former, and hopefully, the next president of the United States, Donald Trump.”
Saeed Khan, professor of Near Eastern studies at Wayne State University, told Newsweek that the conflict in Gaza isn’t the only issue that has driven some Muslim American voters away from Democrats.
“The other issue is on matters of social conservatism. We’ve seen an uptick, really since 2022, where that segment of the community feels as through the Democratic Party, through its very strong support for the LGBTQ+ community is supporting something that is antithetical to traditional values, particularly when it comes to a religious perspective,” he said.
Khan said that some Muslim voters believe there have been a few missteps from the Harris campaign in their efforts to rebuild trust with Muslim Americans, including when she told pro-Palestinian protesters demonstrating at a campaign event in Detroit, “I’m speaking here,” and when no Palestinians were given a speaking slot at the Democratic National Convention.
Stein, the Green Party candidate hoping to play spoiler in the race, may have made some progress with Muslim voters after selecting Butch Ware, a Muslim academic who formerly worked at the University of Michigan, as her running mate, according to Khan. That selection “energized” some voters who were considering voting third party, he said.
Less than four weeks out, Harris may continue struggle to win over Muslim American voters, Khan said, noting that she seems to be focusing on anti-Trump Republicans in the state because they may be “more reachable” at this point.
“What they would perhaps demand of her is something that she cannot deliver. She won’t make those overtures,” he said.
“Let’s say, for the sake of the argument, that she does make certain kinds of shifts from her current position. That is going to be, at this point, perceived through a healthy amount of skepticism and suspicion that, ‘Is she just doing that to mollify the community?'”
Alzayat, however, said Harris still has time to restore trust among Muslim voters by distancing herself from the Biden administration’s current approach to the conflict. He said she could voice support for a permanent end to the war, as well as suspending U.S. aid to Israel.
